21.05.202612:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Political Uncertainty in the UK Weighs on the British Pound

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair is showing mixed dynamics, fluctuating between modest gains and slight losses while remaining near the weekly high reached the previous day. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3420 level, little changed since the start of the day. Traders appear cautious and reluctant to open aggressive positions amid conflicting signals regarding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump stated that the country was in the "final stage" of negotiations with Iran. Following these remarks, US Vice President J.D. Vance expressed optimism, indicating that Iran was prepared to reach an agreement. However, the initial optimism quickly faded after Trump warned of possible military action if Iran refused to sign a peace deal. In addition, persistent disagreements over Iran's nuclear program and control of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz continue to support a geopolitical risk premium, strengthening the US dollar's position as a traditional safe-haven asset and limiting GBP/USD growth.

At the same time, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting held on April 28–29 showed that most policymakers consider further monetary policy tightening appropriate if inflation continues to remain significantly above the 2% target. This aligns with market expectations that the US central bank may raise interest rates by 25 basis points in 2026, which is also supporting the US dollar.

This situation highlights a significant divergence in monetary policy compared with the Bank of England, where the likelihood of near-term tightening remains low, further limiting GBP/USD upward potential.

After the release of UK consumer inflation data on Wednesday, which came in below expectations, traders shifted expectations for the next Bank of England rate hike to December. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation indicator, slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in April from 3.3% in March, falling short of forecasts for a 3.0% reading. This, combined with an unexpected rise in the UK unemployment rate to 5.0%, provides an additional argument in favor of the Bank of England maintaining a cautious approach to interest rates amid political instability.

Today, traders should pay close attention to remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, which could significantly influence the market during the US trading session. Attention should also be given to the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data in both the UK and the US, which may provide opportunities for short-term trading operations. Nevertheless, given the current macroeconomic environment, it would be prudent to wait for signs of sustained buying interest before opening positions targeting a further GBP/USD recovery following the rebound from the 1.3300 level, the lowest level since April 8 reached on Monday.

From a technical perspective, the pair is attempting to hold above the convergence of the 200-day and 50-day SMAs. If this support remains intact and the price breaks above the 9-day EMA, bulls may target the 100-day SMA near the 1.3480 level. However, as oscillators remain in negative territory, bullish momentum remains limited. The 200-day SMA serves as immediate support, followed by the psychological 1.3400 level below it. At the moment, bears retain the advantage.