Global commodity markets sharply changed direction. This followed Donald Trump's sensational announcement that talks between the US and Iran had reached a "home stretch." The White House chief canceled a prepared coercive strike on Tehran's positions in response to new compromise proposals from the Iranian side. The emergency de?escalation immediately dampened days?long panic on commodity markets, reversing oil prices. Technology leader Nvidia delivered a phenomenal quarterly report for April, posting record revenue of $81.6 billion (an 85% year?on?year surge) and net income of $58.3 billion, more than tripling year?on?year. The company firmly retains its status as the most valuable public business on the planet with a $5.5 trillion market capitalization.
However, the overheated market's paradox manifested fully: despite the total rout of consensus forecasts, the issuer's shares fell 1.3% in the evening session, exposing extreme buyer fatigue. SpaceX officially moved toward the public markets, filing documents with regulators for an unprecedented IPO. The large?scale offering, slated for mid?June 2026, promises to break all Wall Street records. In preparing for the listing the company intends to raise tens of billions of dollars, restructuring and separating its rocket?launch, Starlink satellite communications and AI?development segments. Global financial venues quickly priced in de?escalation.
After weeks of crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, commodity markets are actively shedding the war premium. A pronounced fall in oil prices has shifted investor sentiment from stagflationary fears back toward growth assets. Nevertheless, the bond market continues to dictate terms, constraining central banks' room for maneuver. Long?term yields have settled at multi?year highs — notably, the 30?year US Treasury yield reached 5.20%. This strong inflationary pressure forced President Donald Trump to noticeably soften his public rhetoric and tone down demands for immediate monetary easing from the Fed.
Expect tough action from Kevin Warsh? Any mention of rate cuts disappeared from the Fed's May minutes published yesterday. The released FOMC minutes confirmed the uncompromising stance of the US regulator. Officials effectively struck easing scenarios from the agenda, shifting the focus to discussion of another round of rate hikes should price pressures remain persistent. Structural overheating of the economy is forcing the committee to act preemptively ahead of Kevin Warsh's official start as Fed chair.
A fresh Reuters consensus survey conducted May 14–19 also recorded a radical reversal in expert expectations. The overwhelming majority of economists acknowledged that the inflationary shock from the Iran conflict will be prolonged, causing the Fed to abandon easing plans this year.
Against this backdrop, the futures market already prices a 35% probability of a 25?bp move up by the end of January, and the 10?year US Treasury yield pierced a one?year peak at 4.6%.
Bank of America calls the wait?and?see stance the base case, stressing that real easing is pushed into next year. The internal Fed debate has hardened: although at the April meeting some officials still argued to keep hints of cuts, the protracted geopolitical conflict with Iran has consolidated a hawkish majority. Experts agree that future Fed chair Kevin Warsh will ignore Trump's pressure and will not pursue aggressive monetary stimulus.
The PCE inflation gauge underpins this rigidity, having accelerated to 3.5% year?on?year — the highest since May 2023, and well above the 2% target. Analysts are forced to revise forecasts downward for the third time in a row. Expected PCE:
Although 86% of economists still consider this spike temporary, BMO Capital Markets warns that the global system has entered a phase of permanent shocks, where old forecasting models no longer work. The macro backdrop remains stable: unemployment is projected at 4.3% and average GDP growth around 2%.
A US recessionary facade. Daniel Jones (Seeking Alpha) finds clear signs of a latent recession in US macro data. Beneath a glossy exterior lie labour?market weakness, rising corporate bankruptcies and household financial stress. Local successes in manufacturing cannot reverse the overall negative trend: employment in construction and industrial production is showing a sharp decline, and private investment in fixed capital in the industrial segment collapsed by 18.3% from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026.
The current AI boom merely camouflages massive economic impotence. Up to 39% of US GDP growth is now attributable to investments in artificial intelligence, yet the real return on these technologies remains minimal for the vast majority of companies. The White House's hands are effectively tied: a colossal budget deficit and an astronomical government debt?to?GDP ratio deprive the government of fiscal room to launch major stimulus as conditions deteriorate.
21 May, / New Zealand / Trade balance in April / prev.: -365.0 mln / actual: 698.0 mln / forecast: 842.0 mln / NZD/USD – up
The trade balance reflects the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports. In the prior period, the figures showed a marked improvement, moving from a deficit to a surplus. Analysts expect the positive balance to widen further in the April report. Actuals above market expectations would indicate strong export performance and support the New Zealand dollar.
21 May, 02:00 / Australia / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (May) / prev.: 49.8 pts / actual: 51.3 pts / forecast: 50.6 pts / AUD/USD – down
Last month, Australia's manufacturing PMI rose above the neutral 50 mark. However, much of that increase was driven by longer delivery times amid the Middle East conflict rather than by firm underlying demand. New orders fell, production contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months, and firms reported job cuts and a sharp rise in costs. The May report is expected to show some slowing. Confirmation of the forecast would point to persistent structural issues in the sector and weigh on the Australian dollar.
21 May, 02:50 / Japan / Trade balance in April / prev.: 44.3 bln / actual: 667.0 bln / forecast: 29.7 bln / USD/JPY – up
Japan's trade surplus in March widened thanks to export strength, which hit a historic high due to strong demand from:
Nevertheless, the final surplus was significantly weaker than initial market expectations. The April release is forecast to show a material decline in the positive balance. If realized, this would weaken the yen.
21 May, 02:50 / Japan / Orders for machinery and equipment in March / prev.: 13.7% / actual: 24.7% / forecast: 4.5% / USD/JPY – up
Orders for machinery and equipment in Japan showed a robust increase at the start of the year — somewhat below the previous month's dynamics but well above long?term historical averages. Analysts expect a sharp slowdown in the March figure. If actuals fall toward the forecast, this would confirm weak corporate activity and weigh on the yen.
21 May, 03:30 / Japan / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (May) / prev.: 51.6 pts / actual: 55.1 pts / forecast: 54.5 pts / USD/JPY – up
Japan's manufacturing PMI rose in April to its highest level in several years. The pickup in production and inflow of new orders was largely driven by precautionary stockpiling amid the Middle East conflict. At the same time, firms faced delivery delays, sharply rising costs and were forced to raise selling prices. The May report is expected to show a moderate slowdown. Confirmation of the forecast would still indicate a high level of industrial activity and put upward pressure on USD/JPY.
21 May, 04:30 / Australia / Employment change in April / prev.: -27.7k / actual: 52.5k / forecast: 40.0k / AUD/USD – down
Full?time employment in Australia rose in March, fully offsetting the prior month's decline. Strong labor demand persists despite macro pressure from the international conflict. April's report is expected to show some slowdown in hiring. If the forecast is confirmed, this would point to cooling in the labor market and weaken the Australian dollar.
21 May, 10:30 / Germany / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (May) / prev.: 52.2 pts / actual: 51.4 pts / forecast: 51.0 pts / EUR/USD – down
Germany's manufacturing PMI corrected down from March's multi?year high. Although output and new orders increased, manufacturers expect production to fall in the coming months due to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Businesses cite:
Commodity price growth hit multi?year highs. The May report is expected to show further slowing in activity. Confirmation would weigh on the euro.
21 May, 11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (May) / prev.: 51.6 pts / actual: 52.2 pts / forecast: 51.9 pts / EUR/USD – down
The eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached multi?year highs in April, showing:
The positive momentum was largely driven by precautionary stockpiling amid energy and logistics shocks. At the same time, logistics chains came under strain and employment continued to fall. Input cost inflation hit multi?month highs, denting business confidence. The May release is forecast to show a decrease in the index. If data match forecasts, this will confirm a slowdown in industrial expansion and weaken the euro.
21 May, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (May) / prev.: 51.0 pts / actual: 53.7 pts / forecast: 53.0 pts / GBP/USD – down
The UK manufacturing PMI showed solid growth in April, hitting multi?year highs thanks to strong domestic and export demand. New orders boosted output, yet the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz exacerbated logistical problems. This led to a sharp rise in commodity prices and pushed business optimism to annual lows. The May release is forecast to show a moderate decline. Realization of the forecast would signal cooling industrial optimism and weigh on the pound.
21 May, 12:00 / Eurozone / Construction output in March / prev.: -4.1% / actual: -1.9% / forecast: -2.6% / EUR/USD – down
Construction output in the eurozone fell 1.9% year?on?year in February, showing some moderation in the pace of decline compared with the prior month. The sector's dynamics remain weaker than long?term historical averages. Analysts expect the negative trend to deepen in March. Confirmation would indicate ongoing weakness in the sector and weigh on the euro.
21 May, 13:00 / United Kingdom / CBI industrial trends (May) / prev.: -27 pts / actual: -38 pts / forecast: -40 pts / GBP/USD – down
The CBI industrial trends survey recorded a sharp drop in order books in April to the lowest levels seen in recent months. Amid the Iran war, firms' price expectations posted a record monthly surge since records began in the mid?1970s. This led to:
21 May, 15:30 / US / Building permits (m/m) in April / prev.: 11.0% / actual: -11.4% / forecast: 0.5% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
Monthly building permits in the US plunged in March, fully reversing strong prior momentum. The current decline was considerably worse than long?term averages. Analysts expect the figure to return to modest growth in April. Confirmation would signal a recovery in construction activity and strengthen the US dollar.
21 May, 15:30 / US / Housing starts in April / prev.: -3.0% / actual: 10.8% / forecast: -3.5% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
Housing starts in March posted double?digit month?on?month growth, recovering from February's decline and well exceeding long?term historical averages. The April report is forecast to show a reversal to contraction. If data match expectations, this would indicate cooling construction activity and weigh on the dollar.
21 May, 15:30 / US / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 199k / actual: 211k / forecast: 210k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the first week of May showed a moderate increase, with continuing claims also rising. Despite this, overall figures remain well below historical averages, confirming labor market resilience and low layoff intensity even amid technical delays from partial government shutdowns. Analysts expect current trends to persist. Realization of the forecast would support the US dollar.
21 May, 15:30 / US / Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (May) / prev.: 18.1 pts / actual: 26.7 pts / forecast: 18.0 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing activity index unexpectedly surged to a multi?month high in April, significantly beating gloomy market forecasts. The rise was driven by a sharp increase in shipments and new orders, although the employment subindex turned negative. Inflationary pressures also intensified as input and output price measures hit local highs. The May report is expected to show a pullback. Confirmation of the forecast would signal a slowdown in the region's manufacturing impulse and weigh on the dollar.
21 May, 16:45 / US / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (May, final) / prev.: 52.3 pts / actual: 54.5 pts / forecast: 54.0 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI for April recorded the fastest expansion in the sector in years. Output accelerated, and domestic orders increased amid active stockpiling due to logistics disruptions. Export activity continued to contract due to tariffs and geopolitics. Rising costs led to:
The May release is expected to show a modest decrease. If confirmed, this would signal stabilization of activity at more moderate levels and weigh on the US dollar.
21 May, 17:00 / Eurozone / Consumer confidence index (May) / prev.: -16.4 pts / actual: -20.6 pts / forecast: -20.8 pts / EUR/USD – up
The preliminary consumer confidence index for the eurozone in April fell sharply, hitting a multi?year low amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. Disruptions to energy supplies and the associated inflationary pressure have increased households' concerns about further rate hikes. This has worsened assessments of household finances and reduced spending. The May report is expected to keep the index at low levels. If the forecast is confirmed, this will signal entrenched pessimism and lead to a firmer euro.
22 May, 02:01 / United Kingdom / GfK consumer confidence index (May) / prev.: -21 pts / actual: -25 pts / forecast: -28 pts / GBP/USD – down
The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK fell to -25 points in April, marking the steepest decline in a year. The sharp deterioration reflects growing public concern about the economic consequences of the escalation in the Middle East. Pessimism affected both assessments of personal finances and views on the UK economy's prospects. With rising fuel prices putting pressure on household budgets, analysts expect further declines in May. Confirmation of the forecast will indicate greater vulnerability in the consumer sector and weaken the pound.
22 May, 02:30 / Japan / Consumer inflation growth in April / prev.: 1.3% / actual: 1.5% / forecast: 1.8% / USD/JPY – down
Japan's annual inflation rate accelerated to 1.5% in March, rebounding from multi?month lows. The main drivers were:
Food inflation slowed thanks to stabilizing rice prices, and government subsidies restrained utility costs. Core inflation also rose but remained below the central bank's target. The April report is forecast to show further acceleration in consumer prices. If actuals match the forecast, this will signal strengthening inflationary pressure and support the yen.
22 May, 09:00 / Germany / GfK consumer climate index for June (leading) / prev.: -28.1 pts / actual: -33.3 pts / forecast: -34.0 pts / EUR/USD – down
Germany's consumer climate index fell sharply in May, reaching a multi?month low. The leading indicator reflects growing pressure on household budgets from higher energy costs, which undermines expectations about:
Consumers' willingness to make major purchases dropped to two?year lows, while propensity to save remained high. The June report is expected to keep the index at low levels. If confirmed, this will indicate further cooling in consumer activity and weigh on the euro.
22 May, 09:00 / Germany / GDP growth in Q1 / prev.: 0.3% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: 0.3% / EUR/USD – down
Germany's economic growth in Q1 is expected to slow from 0.4% to 0.3% year?on?year. Current expansion rates remain well below long?term historical averages. The next release is forecast to show continued moderate dynamics at current levels. If the final figure confirms the forecast, this will indicate a lack of significant economic momentum and weigh on the euro.
22 May, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Retail sales growth in April / prev.: 1.8% / actual: 1.7% / forecast: 1.3% / GBP/USD – down
UK retail sales rose 1.7% year?on?year in March, a slight revision from the previous month. Current retail turnover sits near historical averages, showing relative stability in the consumer sector. The April report is expected to show a more noticeable slowdown in commercial activity. Confirmation would signal cooling domestic demand and weaken the pound.
22 May, 11:00 / Germany / Ifo business climate index (May) / prev.: 86.3 pts / actual: 84.4 pts / forecast: 84.2 pts / EUR/USD – down
Germany's Ifo business climate index fell sharply in April to its lowest level since the pandemic. The decline in business sentiment reflects worsening:
Negative dynamics were recorded across all key sectors — manufacturing, trade, construction and services — with logistics suffering the largest losses. Analysts expect the index to stabilize in May. If actuals match the forecast, this will confirm persistent depressed business sentiment and weigh on the euro.
22 May, 14:00 / Canada / CFIB business activity index (May) / prev.: 55.7 pts / actual: 58.5 pts / forecast: 57.4 pts / USD/CAD – up
Canada's long?run business activity index showed a solid rebound in April after a sharp prior?month decline. Short?term business optimism also improved modestly, with gains recorded in:
Transport and hospitality, however, faced deterioration. At the same time, inflation accelerated to multi?month highs and wage growth picked up. The May report is expected to show a slight correction. If confirmed, this will indicate moderately positive business sentiment and weigh on the Canadian dollar.
22 May, 15:30 / Canada / Retail sales growth in March / prev.: 1.4% / actual: 3.8% / forecast: 1.5% / USD/CAD – up Canadian retail sales accelerated markedly in February, posting the strongest growth in the past six months. Turnover still lags long?term averages but points to a notable rise in consumer activity. The March report is forecast to show a sharp slowdown. Confirmation of the forecast would signal cooling domestic demand and weigh on the loonie.
22 May, 15:30 / Canada / Producer inflation growth in April / prev.: 5.6% / actual: 7.8% / forecast: 10.0% / USD/CAD – down
Canada's producer price index jumped sharply year?on?year in March to a multi?year high. The main driver of industrial inflation was an unprecedented rise in precious?metal prices on world markets. The April report is forecast to show further acceleration in wholesale prices. If realized, this would increase pressure on consumer prices and strengthen the Canadian dollar.
22 May, 17:00 / US / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (May) / prev.: 53.3 pts / actual: 49.8 pts / forecast: 48.2 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
US consumer sentiment hit a historic low in early May amid growing concerns about the high cost of living. Declining assessments of current conditions were driven by higher gasoline prices and protectionist tariffs, which pressure personal finances and deter big purchases. Despite a slight easing in inflation expectations, overall consumer mood remains deeply depressed. If final data confirm the forecast, this will cement long?term US pessimism and weaken the dollar.
21 May, 15:00 / United Kingdom / Speech by Martin Taylor, Bank of England Financial Policy Committee / GBP/USD
21 May, 18:00 / United Kingdom / Speech by Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England / GBP/USD
22 May, 17:00 / US / Speech by Christopher Waller, Governor, Federal Reserve Board / USDX
Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled on these days. Their comments typically trigger volatility in currency markets as they can indicate regulators' future policy intentions.
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