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US stock index futures opened in the green, with bond sell-offs slowing. The S&P 500 futures rose by 0.5%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ added around 0.8%. The US dollar index has also stabilized. In contrast, European indices dipped slightly after a positive start.
US Treasury bond yields dropped by four basis points. The bonds themselves rebounded after speculation that the Federal Reserve might maintain its tight policy into next year or even longer.
MUFG Bank Ltd believes that bond markets greatly influence the stock and currency markets, as well as the US economy. Their analytical note reads that "if yields continue to move higher, at some point relatively soon we will see even larger equity market declines and a hit to the main engine of the US economy – the consumer."
Meanwhile, oil prices have resumed their uptrend, surpassing $91 per barrel. This raises concerns about a potential spike in the Consumer Price Index in the late third and early fourth quarters of this year. Recent consumer sentiment data, which dropped to 103, only added fuel to the pressure on the stock market.
On Tuesday, Senate Democratic and Republican leaders agreed on a plan to keep the government running until mid-November. However, the plan still needs approval from the House of Representatives. Positive news post-vote could help counter the recent bearish trend observed in US indices.
As for the S&P 500, demand for the index remains weak. Bulls need to take control of $4,304 if they aim to halt the bearish momentum. From this level, they may drag the price to $4,332. Bulls also need to control $4,357, which would bring market equilibrium. If the price declines due to reduced risk appetite, bulls will have to protect $4,268. Breaking through this level, the index may plummet to $4,229 and $4,202.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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