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In January, a downward medium-term momentum is clearly visible on the pair. This makes it possible to search for favorable prices for selling. The main resistance is NKZ 1/2 1.3313-1.3302. As long as the pair is trading below this zone, the downward movement remains an impulse. Favorable prices for selling are within the zone, however, the probability of returning within the limits of the monthly CP of January is 90%. This does not make it possible to enter into selling until the end of the current month.
The model of continuing the decline has a low probability, and closing the month below below the zone of the average course in 90% of cases will lead to the formation of an upward correction model.
An alternative model is already being formed. Its goal is to update the weekly low. It is not profitable to work within the framework of this model, since the development of such situations fluctuates around 10%. To display such a trade advantage, it will require a preponderance in relation to risk to profit more than 1 to 10. After the end of the current month, the probability will increase to 70%.
Day short - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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