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Last week there was a test of the zone of the average weekly move, which led to the emergence of a large offer. It is important to note that the decline led to the breakdown of a significant support zone and the formation of a reversal pattern.
The close of trading last week occurred below NKZ 1/2 1.1477-1.1468, which indicates an increase in the likelihood of continued downward movement. An important factor for working in the downward direction will be the opening price of trading in the European session on Monday. The following purpose of decrease will be a weekly KZ 1.1386-1.1368. The probability of the test of the specified zone is 70%. This allows us to consider the growth to find favorable prices for the sale of the instrument.
An important point on Monday will be trading in the Asian session. If there is no large demand and the pair updates Friday's low, it will indicate the strength of the downward movement.
The formation of an alternative upward model will require the absorption of Friday's fall and the closing of Monday's trading at 1.1530 or higher. This will cancel the impulse downward movement and allow us to consider the work in the frame of the local accumulation zone, where the extremes of the last week will come to the fore. The probability of implementation of this model is 30%, so it should be considered as an auxiliary.
Day short - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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