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Bitcoin is holding near $86,500 while Ethereum is trading above $2,730. The rally is unfolding amid highly anticipated US nonfarm payrolls and a loud European story.
More than 50,000 people have written to the European Commission asking it to soften restrictions on rewards for stablecoins as part of the MiCA review, Global Times reports. The group seeks permission for regulated issuers to offer cashback, loyalty programs and fee discounts. Remember, MiCA — in force since mid?2024 — currently bans issuers and crypto?service providers from paying interest on stablecoins. The group argues that this makes crypto products uncompetitive with bank deposits and electronic money, where customer bonuses are allowed.
Supporters say strong euro?stablecoins are important for the euro's global role and the EU's payment sovereignty. The US has clearly embraced stablecoins as a settlement layer for tokenization; Europe shouldn't simply copy that approach but rather compete with it. For context: USDT's market cap once approached $190 billion, and that is part of why Brussels is weighing whether a euro token should even be allowed to pay cashback. The beneficiaries, if lobbyists win, are obvious: euro?stablecoin issuers and platforms that need incentives to attract holders.
But today's events matter more. Intraday trading still revolves around the US labor market. The September jobs report is due at 15:30 Moscow time. The market expects roughly +90,000 jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate; some estimates drop to 85,000 after August's +162,000. Recall the market reaction to the prior release: on September 4 Bitcoin fell about 2.1% intraday, and the drawdown from the September 15 peak reached 8.9%. If payrolls are strong and exceed 90,000, I expect Bitcoin and Ether to fall: the odds of an October Fed hike would rise, supporting the dollar and yields. If the data disappoint, upside momentum should remain, and Bitcoin could move toward $90,000.
Bitcoin technicals The instrument is trading in a narrow corridor between support at $85,985 and resistance at $86,687, and the plan is built around two mirrored scenarios with breakout and rejection setups. There are two buy entries. First, a confirmed break above $86,687: buy targeting $87,600, where I would take profits and consider a short on a pullback — provided price stays above the 50?day MA and the Awesome Oscillator is positive. Second, a bounce off $85,985 if a downside break fails and the drop proves false: buy for a return to $86,687 and, in case of weak employment, potentially onward toward $90,000.
Sell setups are symmetrical. A confirmed break below $85,985 invites a short targeting the next support at $85,000 — but only if the moving average sits above price and Awesome is negative. If an upside break above $86,687 fails to confirm and price returns below, initiate a short from resistance targeting $85,985 and then $85,000.
Ethereum technicals The logic for Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: an inner corridor between support $2,727 and resistance $2,755, outer bands at $2,682 and $2,793. We can open a buy position on a confirmed break above $2,755m targeting $2,793, where profit is taken and a short positions on the pullback may be considered — conditions: price above the 50?day MA and Awesome positive. A bounce buy off $2,727, if a downside break is false, targets $2,755 and then $2,793.
Sell scenarios: a confirmed break below $2,727 opens a short to $2,682 — provided the MA is above price and Awesome is negative. A failed break above $2,755 followed by a return under the level opens a short targeting $2,727 and then $2,682.
*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。
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