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New data regarding the agreement between the U.S. and Iran provided support for risk assets yesterday. A memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran was leaked to the media, declaring an immediate and definitive cessation of war and including provisions for the U.S. to lift the naval blockade. This document, resulting from long and tense negotiations, opens a new chapter in the relations between the two powers.
The key aspects of the memorandum are the U.S. agreement to lift the naval blockade, which had significantly restricted trade and the movement of Iranian vessels, and the lifting of sanctions on Iran. This decision will undoubtedly have a significant impact on Iran's economic situation, facilitating the restoration of normal trade relations and contributing to the development of the national economy. In turn, Iran has committed to taking steps to roll back its nuclear program. However, the document has yet to be signed. It is expected that the parties will sign it this Friday in Switzerland.
As for today's data, Eurozone consumer price index figures are expected in the first half of the day, along with the core consumer price index. Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, will also be speaking. If the consumer price index exceeds forecasts, it could push the euro higher as markets begin to price in the possibility of further ECB monetary policy tightening. In such a scenario, Lagarde's speech will be a key moment. Her comments will be closely analyzed for signals regarding the bank's future intentions, especially concerning the possibility of interest rate hikes.
Regarding the pound, similar data will be released for the UK today. If the figures exceed economists' forecasts, tomorrow's Bank of England meeting could take place in a rather complicated format. Inflation data are a key indicator for central banks when making monetary policy decisions, and the BoE is no exception. High or accelerating inflation expectations could prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy, significantly impacting the currency market.
Interest rate hikes typically strengthen the national currency but may slow economic growth.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it's advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is the best choice.
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