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The test of the price at 159.12 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 20 pips.
Despite the dollar's visible weakness yesterday, the market situation in the USD/JPY pair remains tense. The absence of progress in the Iranian nuclear program creates further uncertainty, which, in turn, amplifies fluctuations in the pair. Traders are now closely monitoring every stage of the negotiations, aware that even minor changes in statements can provoke significant movements in currency exchange rates and commodity prices. If an agreement is reached, pressure on USD/JPY will increase sharply. Pressure will also rise if the central bank conducts currency interventions when the pair reaches 160 yen.
In the current environment, I advise exercising caution and avoiding hasty decisions. The market is in a phase of anticipation, and any clarification or, conversely, escalation regarding the Iranian situation can dramatically change its trajectory.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 159.19 (the green line on the chart), aiming to reach 159.52 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 159.52, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant USD/JPY drawdowns. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.00 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 159.19 and 159.52.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 159.00 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.56 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers can return at any moment; all it takes is any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.19 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 159.00 and 158.56.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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