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The USD/JPY pair has been climbing for six consecutive days, marking the seventh day of positive momentum in the last eight trading sessions. On Monday, quotes reached a two-week high at the round 159.00 level, supported by the overall strengthening of the US dollar.
The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US currency against a basket of other currencies, has reached its highest level since April 7.
This is occurring against the backdrop of escalating tensions in US-Iran relations and hawkish expectations regarding changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. US President Donald Trump stated that "the clock is ticking" for Iran, warning of consequences if the country does not take appropriate measures. Furthermore, on Saturday, the Times of Israel reported that the US and Israel are ramping up their military preparations in light of the potential resumption of coordinated actions against Iran. These actions increase the risk premium from geopolitical tensions and strengthen the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.
Amid the standoff between the US and Iran and the effective closure of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have reached a two-week high.
This raises concerns that a price spike due to the conflict could intensify inflationary pressure and force the US Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders estimate the probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of the year at over 50%. Market prospects continue to support elevated yields on US Treasury bonds, which also positively impacts the dollar and facilitates the growth of the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese yen is under pressure due to economic risk concerns driven by the conflict in the Middle East. However, speculation about possible interventions by Japanese authorities to support the yen may limit bearish activity and create obstacles to further growth in the USD/JPY pair.
In the absence of significant economic news capable of influencing the market, the risks of currency interventions require caution when opening positions in anticipation of the dollar's strengthening.
From a technical perspective, the pair has crossed above the 50-day SMA, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into positive territory, suggesting a bullish bias. Having established itself above 159.00, the next target will be the round level of 160.00. If it fails to hold above the 50-day SMA, the pair will find support at the 20-day SMA
The table below shows the percentage change in the Japanese yen's exchange rate against major international currencies over the past week. The Japanese yen has shown the greatest dynamic against the British pound.
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