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Another critical signal for the growth of Bitcoin (BTC) has emerged. According to data from the world's largest cryptocurrency options exchange, Deribit, the put-call ratio of current Bitcoin options indicates that market sentiments towards an upward movement will be high in the spring of 2024.
According to Deribit's crypto options exchange data, the number of outstanding, yet unpaid, call options is rapidly increasing compared to open positions in Bitcoin put options. Luuk Strijers, the commercial director of Deribit, interpreted this situation, stating that investors are anticipating the price of the leading cryptocurrency to rise in the first months of 2024. Strijers emphasized:
Bitcoin's put-call ratio has ranged from 0.4 to 0.5 this year. We have noticed that this ratio has decreased for longer maturities, indicating that clients are more likely to use call options to open positions with maturities in March and June 2024. This trend indicates long-term bullish sentiment in the market, and the number of call options is increasing compared to put options.
A put-call ratio below a certain level indicates that the volume of call options exceeds the volume of put options and signals an upward trend in the market.
Other analysts have confirmed this conclusion:
When we check the options data, we see that the put-call ratio is low, indicating that the major trades this week were bullish.
Experts added that options investors are currently positioning themselves based on the expected price increase, focusing on spot Bitcoin-ETFs that are expected to be approved in January.
Cryptocurrency activity is on the rise
On the other hand, Strijers noted that November was one of the most active months for Deribit. He also added that there has been an increase in activity in the cryptocurrency markets, stating that "this increased activity is a reflection or reason for the increase in DVOL (implied volatility) levels and shows that the volumes and opportunities in this market are directed from here."
Strijers expects an increase in open interest before the expiration of month-end, quarterly and annual options that mature on December 29, stating, "Current statistics indicate that $5.7 billion worth of Bitcoin options and $2.7 billion worth of Ethereum options will expire at the end of December."
At the same time, on-chain analyst Willy Woo stated that a key indicator that previously signaled the minimum for BTC in 2022 is once again giving interesting signals. The analyst emphasizes that this signal for the largest cryptocurrency indicates a potential price increase.
Woo mentioned that Bitcoin is starting to leave cryptocurrency exchanges, similar to what happened with the cryptocurrency market last year. He stated that he has not seen such buying activity since the market bottom.
Another network analyst, PlanB, continues to express his expectations regarding the growth of BTC. Emphasizing the hash rate of the main cryptocurrency network as a measure of computational power, he suggests that this indicates that the price will remain above a key level:
Bitcoin's hashrate-based price reached the $35,000 mark yesterday. In my opinion, this could mean that BTC will never fall below $35,000 again, except for possible black swans or short-term fluctuations, based on a dollar-per-kWh funding basis.
PlanB recently said, based on past price trends during four-year cycles of decreasing block reward, also known as halving, that he expects bitcoin to rise to $525,000 in the next four years. He noted that bitcoin tends to rise more than four times from the bottom of ranges during halving cycles:
At the time of the 2012 halving, bitcoin was below $16. During the 2016 halving, BTC fluctuated between $256 and $1,024. During the 2020 halving, the price was between $4,000 and $16,000. For the 2024 halving, the price will range between $16,000 and $65,000. It wouldn't surprise me if it ranges from $65,000 to $525,000 over the next four years.
*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。
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