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Commodities came under pressure after China set a modest economic growth forecast of 5% for 2023. The number is short of market expectations, causing prices for copper, iron ore, aluminum, platinum and other precious metals to plunge.
Recent data also hinted that the government is only focused on supporting and stabilizing the economy, not on massive stimulus, which puts pressure on the metals. This is completely different from what markets were expecting, as they were looking forward to additional government support for the slowing construction and industrial sectors, which would boost demand for industrial metals.
BMO Capital Markets said sentiment and prices in China's metals sector are currently outpacing underlying demand, believing that the second quarter will be a critical period in which it will become clear whether data can catch up with price levels. Energy efficiency is now on the agenda, with the target to reduce energy intensity per unit of GDP, which was suspended in 2022 due to the energy crisis, now returning. This could lead to renewed restrictions on energy-intensive industries such as steel, aluminum and ferro-alloys, as well as reduced exports of these materials.
TD Securities, meanwhile, said there is insufficient evidence of an expected boom in demand for metals due to the opening of the Chinese economy. They believe that congestion may continue to restrain demand for industrial metals in the future.
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