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Trade Review and Trading Advice for the British Pound
The test of the 1.3402 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points.
However, the UK manufacturing sector quickly delivered disappointing news at the worst possible time for the pound. The October order balance came in at -32, compared with analysts' expectations of -20 and the previous month's reading of -9. This indicator measures business managers' sentiment and provides an early indication of the direction of industrial output ahead of official statistics, which is why the market monitors it closely. The report revealed an even more mixed picture in its details. New orders continued to decline in October, although at the slowest pace since April 2025, while weakness affected both domestic and external demand. Output fell over the three months to October, particularly in the food and chemical industries and the fabricated metals sector. As long as manufacturing data remain weak and the US dollar receives support from US economic releases, the pound is likely to struggle to maintain its recent gains.
The focus will now shift to US economic data. Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 200,000, compared with the previous reading of 199,000. This indicator measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week and is considered a timely gauge of labor market conditions. The second release will be the Leading Economic Indicators Index for September. It combines data on orders, building permits, sentiment, and other factors to provide an outlook for the economy over the coming months. The index is expected to decline by 0.2%, following a decrease of 0.1%, from the previous level of 99.5 points. The pound is likely to hold its ground only if US data are weak. Stronger-than-expected figures would likely force the currency to surrender another portion of its weekly gains.
As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3384 (the thin green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3416 (the thick green line on the chart). Near 1.3416, the long position will be closed and a short position opened, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. Further gains in the pound today can be expected only if US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3363 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3384 and 1.3416 can then be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3363 (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3331, where the short position will be closed and a long position opened immediately, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound could return if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline further.
Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3384 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the next levels of 1.3363 and 1.3331 can then be expected.
What the Chart Shows:
Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
