The legend in the InstaSpot team!
Legend! You think that's bombastic rhetoric? But how should we call a man, who became the first Asian to win the junior world chess championship at 18 and who became the first Indian Grandmaster at 19? That was the start of a hard path to the World Champion title for Viswanathan Anand, the man who became a part of history of chess forever. Now one more legend in the InstaSpot team!
Borussia is one of the most titled football clubs in Germany, which has repeatedly proved to fans: the spirit of competition and leadership will certainly lead to success. Trade in the same way that sports professionals play the game: confidently and actively. Keep a "pass" from Borussia FC and be in the lead with InstaSpot!
EUR/USD is pacing inside a cage built by the bond market. That market is so powerful that investors demand risk premia both for exposure to tech stocks and for France's fiscal and political turmoil. Investors have alternatives — and that shows up as a widening spread between French and German yields that prevents the euro from really stretching its wings.
France and Germany bond yield spread dynamics
To sustain its current debt load of roughly 120% of GDP, France would need a feat: shrink the budget deficit to around 2% of GDP, a level unseen since the 1970s. Protesters, meanwhile, are demanding relief from the high cost of living. That implies more spending, and the budget bill presented to the National Assembly is already under strain. Investors are selling European assets, which, in theory, should pressure EUR/USD. In practice, much of that decline in the euro has already occurred in August-October, and the very powerful bond market is starting to push back on the US dollar.
MUFG argues that if Democrats take control of Congress in early November, that would be an important factor weakening the greenback. Likewise, fading interest in AI, which had fueled US economic sentiment and channeled capital into US stocks, would remove a structural tailwind for the dollar. A burst S&P 500 bubble would therefore hit the greenback first.
Bear in mind that EUR/USD bears will not get Fed support before December. Futures markets do not price in a federal funds rate hike in October, and the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for late in the year.
German economic sentiment dynamics
If Democrats control Congress, they would likely block parts of Donald Trump's agenda, including his efforts to drive energy prices down. Yet neither his pledge not to strike Iran before the primaries nor the diesel deal with Russia has prevented Brent from climbing above $110/bbl. That trend pressures the euro as the currency of a net energy importer. The ZEW survey's first dip in sentiment since April only adds to that burden.
Thus, the US dollar is gradually playing through the trump cards it still has, looking for fresh growth drivers while worrying about a popping AI bubble. But France's fiscal and political crisis prevents the euro from mounting a full counterattack. In such an environment, it makes sense to watch the old, reliable guide — oil. It will likely help determine EUR/USD's next directional move.
Technically, the daily chart shows an ongoing battle for fair value at 1.1215. A fresh local high above 1.1235 would be a reason to buy, while a break below 1.1195 would open the way for short positions.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
