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The GBP/USD pair traded lower on Thursday — no surprise. At this point it's not even about a pullback, let alone a correction or an uptrend. The pound is falling every day. As for why it falls — everyone invents their own reasons and justifications. It's a pity they help so few.
Another common explanation for the sudden 300-pip strengthening of the US dollar is a series of speeches by FOMC members. Officials who stayed silent for most of the summer and said little about high inflation or the need to tighten policy have become active since September. Now it turns out that US inflation has exceeded targets for 5.5 years, and the labor market can be sacrificed to slow consumer-price growth. Has any trader heard such statements before? Does this mean the Federal Reserve has officially abandoned its second mandate of full employment? Or are the roughly 30,000 jobs being created on average per month already considered a high employment level?
This week, a new round of talks between Iran and the US took place in New York in a chaotic atmosphere and without prior notice. The UN General Assembly is being held in the US, and Donald Trump suggested a possible meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian so much so that Iranian and US delegations held a three-hour meeting, after which Trump again spoke of progress and a possible agreement. Hard to say how many times this has been claimed. In any case, the market filled with optimism, and Brent crude even dipped to $100 per barrel.
The next day it became clear that Tehran is not going to make concessions to the US. The only thing Iran is willing to do is gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a gradual lifting of sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports, cessation of hostilities in the region, and withdrawal of US troops. Doesn't it seem to you that Iran's demands far exceed the offers? Undoubtedly, Iran did not start the war and has suffered most. Tehran has the right to demand, because it now holds the strongest card — the Strait of Hormuz. But at the same time Iran is unwilling to give up enriched-uranium stocks and nuclear development. Recall that Donald Trump said at the UN summit that Iran will never have nuclear weapons under any circumstances. If Iran is not prepared to renounce nuclear weapons, and Trump does not actually need the Strait of Hormuz, then what talks, deals, or peace are we discussing? The market probably understood this quickly and reached the same conclusion. That's why oil is rising again. And the dollar is also rising, even though it should have fallen amid reduced geopolitical tension — at least in words, at least in dreams.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 67 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is characterized as "average." On Friday, September 25, therefore, we expect movement within the range bounded by 1.3148 and 1.3282. The upper linear regression channel is rising, indicating an uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.
S1 – 1.3184
S2 – 1.3123
S3 – 1.3062
R1 – 1.3245
R2 – 1.3306
R3 – 1.3367
The GBP/USD pair continues its illogical downward movement. Donald Trump's policies will continue to pressure the US economy, so we do not expect long-term gains from the US dollar. 2026 has been positive for the dollar so far due to geopolitics and inflation, which forced capital to seek refuge and prompted the Fed to return to tightening monetary policy. However, on the weekly timeframe, a flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 persists within a four-year uptrend, which allows expecting pound appreciation in the medium term. Consider long positions with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3489 when price is above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows bearish trading, with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3148.
Regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is currently strong;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at present;
Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channel within which the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators;
The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
