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Today, Wednesday, GBP/USD is showing a negative bias, fluctuating below 1.3660 and erasing part of the significant gains recorded the previous day. At the same time, the pair remains near the August high set last week, as market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which could provide a new catalyst for the pair. Key inflation indicators and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday should be analyzed for signals regarding the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy and interest rates. In addition, developments related to the Middle East crisis will have a significant impact on the short-term outlook for both the US dollar and GBP/USD.
It is also worth noting that a communication gap within the Fed is raising concerns about the dollar's outlook.
Philip Wee of DBS Bank argues that recent changes in US Treasury yields point to a significant communication gap within the Fed. He emphasizes that Kevin Warsh needs to clarify how the Fed plans to shape expectations in the absence of clear guidance on possible monetary policy tightening, as well as how responsibilities are divided between the Fed and the Treasury. Wee believes that uncertainty on these issues is undermining confidence in the dollar at a time when investors are already beginning to question the sustainability of high US Treasury yields.
Meanwhile, subdued inflation data and an inactive labor market are fueling expectations that monetary policy will remain unchanged at the FOMC meeting on September 15–16. At the same time, the US Treasury's bond-buying strategy and declining inflation risks amid falling oil prices could lead to a further decline in US Treasury yields, which, in turn, would put pressure on the dollar and support GBP/USD.
Two high-profile officials noted that the Treasury could use nearly $1 trillion in its General Account to finance new plans to buy longer-term bonds.
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is trading below the 1.3660–1.3665 level, a breakout above which could signal further strength from the bulls and open the way for additional gains. Despite the current correction, the short-term trend remains tilted to the upside, although failure to break above this level could indicate a deeper corrective move below the round-number level of 1.3600, bringing the pair back toward 1.3570. The oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is gradually moving out of oversold territory, which could allow the pair to continue higher.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
