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17.08.202612:49 ফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণ এবং পর্যালোচনা: EUR/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: The Pair Rises for the Third Consecutive Day

EUR/USD continues its rebound from last week's psychologically important 1.1500 level, attracting buyers for the third consecutive day. Spot prices have reached a new monthly high, with the bulls targeting a break above the 200-day SMA amid broad-based US dollar weakness.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of currencies, remains near the lower end of its monthly range, as weak US data released on Friday strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates in the immediate future.

According to data from the US Census Bureau, retail sales fell by 0.6% in July, marking the largest monthly decline since May last year and pointing to a slowdown in consumer spending. This comes amid signs of easing price pressures, giving the US central bank room to keep interest rates at their current level.

Scotiabank analysts noted that "the steepening of the US Treasury 2/30 yield curve, which reached 108 basis points, reflects growing investor concerns about the Fed's future monetary policy amid weak fiscal dynamics in the US." They argue that "this steepening of the yield curve is an additional factor restraining the dollar's overall gains," adding that "short-term risks are associated with a potential decline in the DXY to the mid-98s."

On the other hand, the single currency is supported by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, given that inflation remains above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the ongoing confrontation between the US and Iran is creating geopolitical tensions. In addition, inflation concerns caused by fluctuations in oil prices could discourage traders from taking aggressive short positions in the US dollar, limiting the potential upside in EUR/USD in the near term.

For better trading opportunities, it is worth waiting for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, which are expected to provide additional signals regarding the direction of the Fed's monetary policy. These expectations will play a key role in shaping the US dollar's dynamics and creating short-term trading opportunities in EUR/USD. Nevertheless, the fundamental picture described above suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside, and any corrections are likely to be limited by renewed buying.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains just below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The next resistance level is 1.1650. A daily close above this level could pave the way toward the 1.1700 round level and beyond.

In the event of a decline, initial support is located at the 100-day SMA and the 200-day EMA. A break below these levels would open the way toward 1.1522, where the 14-day EMA is currently located, as well as deeper support levels. Nevertheless, the oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against the major currencies today. The US dollar showed the greatest strength against the Canadian dollar.

*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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