The legend in the InstaSpot team!
Legend! You think that's bombastic rhetoric? But how should we call a man, who became the first Asian to win the junior world chess championship at 18 and who became the first Indian Grandmaster at 19? That was the start of a hard path to the World Champion title for Viswanathan Anand, the man who became a part of history of chess forever. Now one more legend in the InstaSpot team!
Borussia is one of the most titled football clubs in Germany, which has repeatedly proved to fans: the spirit of competition and leadership will certainly lead to success. Trade in the same way that sports professionals play the game: confidently and actively. Keep a "pass" from Borussia FC and be in the lead with InstaSpot!
Silence is golden. That seems to be the choice of new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, who refused to tell attendees at the ECB symposium in Portugal whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting. Markets took the uncertainty in stride: CME derivatives price the odds of tightening this month at under 30%.
Stock index dynamics
Major US stock indices closed mixed. Economically sensitive firms of the S&P 500 outperformed tech giants as ISM's manufacturing PMI expanded for the sixth consecutive month.
At first glance, the macro picture supports investor optimism. Manufacturing activity has been expanding for half a year — a rare pace in recent years, especially after an oil shock. Cooling input prices have removed part of the inflationary pressure that not long ago had traders fearing Fed hikes. That is how Wall Street answers the question posed since the start of summer: is the current broad?market rally too narrowly based? Cyclical stocks typically move first on such shifts, and they didn't disappoint in trading on the first day of July.
A spoonful of tar came from the ADP data. In June, the private sector added 98,000 jobs — below the expected 110,000. The equity market largely shrugged off the miss: the release came ahead of the main government employment report, and investors preferred to wait for the full picture. The weak print is a reminder that the economy's resilience still needs confirmation. If the labor market disappoints, arguments for Fed tightening will weaken — and the cyclical S&P 500 rally will be called into question.
S&P 500 seasonality
Seasonality is on the bulls' side. July has historically been the best month for the S&P 500 over the past two decades: since 2005, the index has averaged a 2.5% gain — more than four times the average monthly move in the other 11 months. There hasn't been a losing July since 2014.
Still, the benign seasonality runs against fundamental risks. The fallout from the Iran war continues to affect inflation, increasing pressure on the Fed. The specter of higher rates threatens corporate profits, and the November midterms remain a wild card.
The Magnificent Seven basket lost nearly 9% in June — the worst monthly performance since March 2025. Citigroup warns that risks for the group remain elevated and that bearish flows are building both within the tech winners and across the S&P 500 as a whole. Can July's seasonal magic overcome these headwinds?
Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart showed a failed fair-value test followed by the formation of a doji bar. A break below its low at 7,445 would be a sell signal. Conversely, a rally above 7,520 would allow for adding long positions.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
