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Bitcoin and Ether are finally showing signs of completing a three-month upward correction. Liquidity pools remain below, and the price is likely to reach that level with a 90% probability. Structure breaks, sell signals, and "bearish" patterns are beginning to form. Thus, we remain set on the decline of the two major cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, various analytical platforms analyzed trading in the cryptocurrency market this week and concluded that demand in the spot market remains weak and that there is capital outflow from bitcoin ETFs. Earlier this week, Bitcoin experienced a mass liquidation of long positions, forcing the closure of deals worth about $600 million. Currently, the bulls are showing no signs of activity, despite a price rebound from $83,000 to $76,000. Analysts at Glassnode reported that Bitcoin is trading below the "market average price," which is currently $78,300. This level is considered to separate "bullish" and bearish trends. Therefore, this mark currently acts as resistance for the price, and a confident breakthrough is required.
Experts also note that activity in the cryptocurrency market has decreased by 40% compared to 2025. The realized profit index has risen to 1.8, indicating the closure of buy trades at the first available opportunity. There is a lack of new demand to absorb the supply. BitFinex reported that a sustained hold above $80,000 requires an influx of new capital into ETFs or a serious short squeeze (market saturation with short positions where mass closures lead to a strong rise). As we see, even experts currently find no reasons for further growth of the first cryptocurrency. Open data confirms the extremely low demand for "digital gold."
Bitcoin continues to form a complete downward trend and corrects against it. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of the beginning of a long-term upward trend. Among the POI areas, we can currently highlight only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily time frame, located in the $79,300 - $81,200 range. A sell signal has indeed been formed in this area (on the second attempt), which has been confirmed on the hourly time frame. Thus, we are set on the resumption of the downward trend in the near future, and bearish patterns on the 4-hour time frame can be used to open short positions.
On the daily time frame, the downward trend is forming, and a correction against it continues. The key sell pattern has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly time frame. As we warned, the movement provoked by this signal can be strong and prolonged. We do not believe it is finished, as there are no signs of an end to the downward trend for either Bitcoin or Ether. In the near term, Ether may continue to decline, as signs of the completion of the three-month correction are increasing daily for both Ether and Bitcoin. On the 4-hour time frame, the trend is downward, so bearish patterns can be used to open short positions. The target remains at the level of $1,742.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
