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The GBP/USD currency pair traded on Thursday as if it were doing someone a favor. However, throughout the day, there were no important announcements, leaving the market without anything to react to. There is only one trading day left this week, which now looks potentially very important and volatile. Nevertheless, it's worth reminding ourselves ahead of Friday that the market has largely ignored most macroeconomic data for nearly three months. To see significant movements in the market, the upcoming US labor reports and unemployment figures must show resonant values — that is, they must deviate from forecasts.
The British pound, meanwhile, maintains an upward sentiment, but is not in a hurry to rise. There is a lack of positive geopolitical news to support further growth, and there are no grounds for a decline either. Iran and the US are desperately trying to reach at least some agreement that would allow for the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz and provide a chance for a permanent truce. However, as experts note, negotiations are progressing very slowly, so we should not expect a comprehensive agreement any time soon.
On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was generated yesterday. During the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3588 level, but volatility remained very low throughout the day. There wasn't even a discussion of reaching the nearest target. By evening, the British currency returned to its starting positions.
The COT reports for the British pound indicate that commercial traders' sentiment has been continuously changing in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders constantly intersect and are mostly positioned near the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, with non-commercial traders largely continuing to dominate with... short positions. Given the events in the Middle East, it is no surprise that demand for risk currencies is falling while demand for the dollar is rising.
In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed both directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. However, geopolitical factors currently take precedence and have recently provided strong support for the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East cannot be deemed resolved, the US dollar may still show gains in the future. According to the latest COT report (dated April 28), the "Non-commercial" group closed 3,500 BUY contracts and opened 5,000 SELL contracts. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 8,500 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, which may be invalidated if the British pound consolidates below the Ichimoku indicator lines. Geopolitical influence is continuing to weaken, and the market is no longer paying close attention to all news from the Middle East. The dollar has lost its only significant support factor.
For May 8, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3550) and the Kijun-sen (1.3583) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss order to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Friday, there are no significant events scheduled in the UK, but the US will release several important and some secondary reports, providing an opportunity for active movements in the American trading session. Of course, the primary attention should be given to the Nonfarm Payroll and unemployment rate reports. It is also essential to keep in mind that geopolitical news may emerge unexpectedly.
Today, traders may consider opening short positions if the price consolidates below the Senkou Span B line, targeting 1.3465-1.3480. Long positions are advised on a rebound from the Senkou Span B or Kijun-sen lines, aiming for the area of 1.3671-1.3681.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
