Our team has over 7,000,000 traders!
Every day we work together to improve trading. We get high results and move forward.
Recognition by millions of traders all over the world is the best appreciation of our work! You made your choice and we will do everything it takes to meet your expectations!
We are a great team together!
InstaSpot. Proud to work for you!
Actor, UFC 6 tournament champion and a true hero!
The man who made himself. The man that goes our way.
The secret behind Taktarov's success is constant movement towards the goal.
Reveal all the sides of your talent!
Discover, try, fail - but never stop!
InstaSpot. Your success story starts here!
The wave structure on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The latest completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low, while the latest upward wave exceeded the previous high. Thus, the trend has once again turned bullish, although it remains unstable, as all waves are approximately equal in size. The temporary truce between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, but now, three weeks later, it can be said that geopolitical developments are once again moving toward escalation. Therefore, bullish attacks may remain restrained or stop altogether.
On Wednesday, bullish traders regained confidence after Monday and Tuesday. It should be recalled that military actions in the Middle East resumed at the beginning of the week, forcing bears to go on the offensive. However, by Wednesday, missile strikes had stopped, and both Washington and Tehran resumed discussions about an agreement and a ceasefire. Neither side wants to provoke a renewed conflict, but neither is prepared to compromise on its demands.
Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz and restrict the passage of foreign vessels through it. The United States, meanwhile, continues to pressure Iran over its control of the strait and restrict Iranian shipping activities. Iran has stated it is prepared to attack U.S. ships if they enter the restricted zone, while U.S. forces are prepared to open fire on Iranian targets if they pose a threat. The situation remains unstable, although both sides still seek to reach at least some form of agreement that could serve as a basis for further negotiations.
However, the market still does not strongly believe in a positive outcome. Negotiations appear to be ongoing, but they have already lasted for months without meaningful progress. As a result, bulls periodically launch attacks, though not aggressively, remaining ready to retreat at any moment if negotiations collapse again.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and began declining toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1617. A rebound from the 1.1778 level once again suggests the possibility of a modest decline. In my opinion, the hourly chart is currently more informative due to the weak market movements. Bulls seized the initiative about a month ago but are now searching for new growth drivers. No developing divergences are currently visible on any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 316 long positions and opened 5,296 short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' total advantage disappeared, while over the past five weeks the situation has stabilized somewhat. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 217,000, compared to 181,000 short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.
Overall, in the long term, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Naturally, various global developments — which have been plentiful in recent years — continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has only been paused rather than resolved. Therefore, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy and economic data, and more on developments in Iran.
Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:
The economic calendar for May 7 contains two events, neither of which can be considered particularly important. Therefore, the influence of the economic background on market sentiment on Thursday is likely to remain limited. Traders continue to wait for new geopolitical developments.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:
Selling opportunities may arise today if the pair consolidates below the 1.1745 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1666. I previously recommended buying positions after consolidation above 1.1745, targeting 1.1824. These long positions can still be held today.
Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.2082–1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
