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The GBP/USD pair continues its mild corrective decline, which began after the formation of two bearish signals: a liquidity grab (marked by the red line) and a reaction to imbalance 16. However, over the past two weeks, the pound has remained within bullish imbalance 19, failed to invalidate it, preserved a bullish bias, and has been rising actively over the past two days. Therefore, I believe a buy signal could form as early as today. In this case, bearish imbalance 16 will no longer be able to offer resistance to bulls, as it has effectively already been worked off twice. There are no other bearish obstacles for buyers at this stage. We may now be witnessing the start of a new impulse toward this year's highs.
Last week, I mentioned that further growth in the pound had certain conditions. However, Friday and Monday have shown that bulls are ready to push higher even without them. In my view, current market behavior indicates one thing: traders are no longer concerned about the conflict in the Middle East or rising oil and gas prices. Previously, the dollar could benefit significantly from these factors, as many traders considered it a "safe-haven currency." But a safe-haven currency is only needed when capital seeks to leave high-risk areas.
The conflict in the Middle East is now in its ninth week. All capital that wanted to leave risky regions and jurisdictions has likely already done so. Therefore, the pound is rising not on its own strength, but because the dollar is weakening again. I discuss the reasons behind the dollar's decline in nearly every article.
The latest rally in the pound began with a "Three Drives Pattern." This means traders received a bullish signal at the very beginning of the move, and the trend remains bullish. At present, the ceasefire is quite fragile, and the parties involved have yet to decide whether to continue negotiations or resume hostilities. Talks may resume—but so could the conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz remains under dual pressure, while Tehran and Washington have been unable to agree on the next round of negotiations. As of Monday, nothing has changed for about a week. Both sides verbally express willingness to reach an agreement, but in practice, no real steps are being taken.
The "Three Drives Pattern," marked on the chart with a triangle, enabled bulls to take control. Imbalance 18 allowed traders to open long positions, and imbalance 19 may provide another opportunity to do so today. Thus, we could see a third bullish signal within the current impulse this week. Bearish patterns and liquidity grabs are not creating any real discomfort for bulls.
There was no economic news flow on Monday, and no new updates regarding a ceasefire or negotiations from either the U.S. or Iran. Iran believes it has passed the responsibility to the U.S., while the U.S. believes the ball is in Iran's court. The pause continues—at least without active fighting.
In the United States, the broader backdrop still suggests that, in the long term, little can be expected other than further dollar weakness. Even a conflict between Iran and the U.S. does little to change this outlook. Geopolitics briefly revived interest in the dollar's safe-haven status over the past two months, but overall, the long-term situation for the dollar remains challenging.
The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not expected to tighten monetary policy in 2026. There have already been four major protests across the U.S. directed personally against Donald Trump, and the potential departure of Jerome Powell could further worsen the situation for the dollar (especially if, under Kevin Warsh, the FOMC adopts a more dovish stance). From an economic perspective, I see no grounds for dollar strength.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
On April 28, the economic calendar contains only one secondary event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" signaled potential growth early on, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and a buy signal. Price has taken liquidity from bullish swings dated March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, but bears failed to initiate a meaningful move in either case. This is another positive factor for the pound—traders remain in a bullish mindset.
Thus, under current conditions, despite geopolitical factors, I expect the upward movement to continue. The euro is also likely to keep rising. The target for the pound is the 2026 high. The reaction to imbalance 16 triggered a corrective pullback, but a reaction to imbalance 19 may provide traders with a new buy signal.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
