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08.04.202620:22 ফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণ এবং পর্যালোচনা: GBP/USD: Smart Money – Pound Surges on Middle East "Peace" Headlines

The GBP/USD pair showed a rise of nearly 300 points on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Did traders who had been buying the dollar for two months suddenly have reasons to abandon their main strategy? Yes—very solid and at the same time contradictory ones. Let's start with technical analysis. As I mentioned in recent articles, an important and relatively rare "Three Drives Pattern" was formed, after which the upward movement began. Thus, traders received a bullish signal, while the trend had remained bullish throughout.

Second, last night, when many were expecting a potential nuclear strike on Iran, Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a two-week ceasefire. It does not matter that the ceasefire actually lasted only about 15 hours; bullish traders received a strong reason to go on the offensive. The ambiguity lies in the fact that, at the moment, there is no longer any ceasefire. By the end of the day, we will likely receive an official assessment from U.S. authorities, and traders will probably learn many interesting details. However, a bullish signal within a bullish trend has already formed—and that is the most important thing.

Washington has recently shown a desire to end the war—but on its own terms. Iran, in turn, was ready to end it on its own terms. Since new missiles were launched on Wednesday, it is clear that an agreement was not reached. One hopes this is just an unfortunate misunderstanding and that the situation will become clearer by the evening. If not, we may see another drop in the pound tomorrow, along with rising oil and gas prices. Traders continue reacting alternately to improvements and deteriorations in the geopolitical environment.

The probability of a decline in both currency pairs remains fairly high, as the Middle East ceasefire is fragile. At the same time, the "Three Drives Pattern" marked on the chart (with a triangle) allowed bulls to take the initiative, which is already a positive sign. This pattern consists of three consecutive swings, each slightly lower or higher than the previous one, and indicates the end of a bearish impulse (in this case). Thus, technical analysis provides decent chances for further pound growth—but bulls strongly need support from geopolitics.

As long as the bullish trend remains intact (above the 1.3012 level), I would focus more on bullish signals. This week, a bullish imbalance is likely to form, which could later allow traders to open new long positions.

There was no significant economic news on Wednesday, and the market spent the entire day reacting to the ceasefire—even though Iran, Israel, and the U.S. continued military actions in the Middle East. However, the details of the ceasefire are still unclear. For example, Israel attacked Lebanon rather than Iran. Thus, it is possible that the ceasefire applies only between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, while other participants in the conflict may require separate agreements.

In the U.S., the overall information backdrop remains such that, in the long term, little can be expected other than a decline of the dollar. Even the conflict between Iran and the U.S. does little to change this. The long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains challenging, with only short-term positive factors. The labor market continues to weaken, the economy is increasingly approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not planning to tighten monetary policy in 2026. Additionally, the fourth major wave of protests against Donald Trump has already taken place across the U.S. From an economic standpoint, there are no solid reasons for dollar growth.

For a bearish trend to develop, a strong and stable positive informational background for the dollar is needed—something difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Geopolitics has been supporting the dollar for over a month, but this support will eventually fade. It is hard to say when, so it cannot be ruled out that the dollar may continue rising for another week, month, or even several months.

Economic Calendar (U.S. & UK):

• U.S. – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – GDP change (Q4) (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

On April 9, the economic calendar includes three entries, with U.S. GDP being the most notable. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be limited. Traders are still primarily focused on geopolitical developments.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish, but there are currently no active bullish patterns. Only the "Three Drives Pattern" warned traders about possible growth. The sharp decline of the pair in recent weeks was largely due to unfortunate circumstances. If Donald Trump had not initiated the conflict in the Middle East, we likely would not have seen such a strong rise in the dollar.

I believe this decline could end as suddenly as it began—perhaps it already has. However, at this moment, the bearish phase cannot yet be considered fully over.

In the near term, traders can only rely on the formation of new bullish patterns. This week, an imbalance is likely to form, which could later provide opportunities for new long positions. If a full ceasefire is achieved (not like the current one), the pound may continue its upward movement toward this year's highs.

*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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