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The EUR/USD currency pair clearly indicated on Tuesday that it is ready to react only to geopolitical events. Throughout the day, a considerable amount of macroeconomic data were published, but essentially, the pair traded sideways all day, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute timeframe. Of course, it could be said that the business activity indices in Germany and the Eurozone contradicted each other, and that would be true. The services sector activity index showed a downward trend, while the manufacturing sector showed an upward trend. Thus, there was a mutual offset. However, from our perspective, this is not an excuse. Donald Trump's ceasefire is on pause, so the market is waiting for this pause to end. No official sources have confirmed negotiations between Tehran and Washington, so the market simply does not know how to react to the situation. On one hand, Trump speaks of a ceasefire; on the other, Iran rejects and denies any attempts to find a way out of the current situation.
From a technical standpoint, an upward trend is forming, but it only brings tears. The pair is moving upward very sluggishly, with corrections comprising up to 90% of the trend impulses. Therefore, the current upward movement can best be described as a "correction." If the current upward movement is a correction, we are waiting for a new phase of the main trend. This will be possible if "Trump's peace" fails.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, only one trading signal was formed. During the European trading session, the pair bounced from the area of 1.1615-1.1625 and managed to drop 20-30 pips throughout the day. These 20-30 pips could have been earned by traders on the only short position.
The latest COT report is dated March 17. In the illustration of the weekly timeframe, it is clear that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish" but is rapidly declining due to geopolitical events at the beginning of 2026. Traders are mass-selling the euro in favor of the US dollar. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar is again acting as the "reserve currency," which is driving a sharp influx of buyers.
We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency. However, there are enough factors pointing to a potential decline for the American dollar. The war in the Middle East has made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but when this factor expires, everything could revert to normal. In the long term, the euro may drop to as low as 1.06 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant.
The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the preservation of a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of longs for the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 52,800, while the number of shorts increased by 31,200. Consequently, the net position decreased by 84,000 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair could have completed its downward trend last week, but there is currently no confidence in this. A new escalation in the Middle East, new shocks in the oil or gas market, and the expansion of conflict beyond the Middle East could provoke a new wave of dollar buying. Any rise in the European currency is inherently unstable now and depends on Trump's decisions.
For March 25, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1615-1.1625, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1830-1.1837, and also the Senkou Span B line (1.1538) and Kijun-sen line (1.1542). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a stop-loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.
On Wednesday, no significant reports are scheduled in the Eurozone or the US, but Christine Lagarde will be speaking in the EU. Lagarde may again discuss the risks of high inflation, the energy crisis, and possible interest rate hikes. However, there will be nothing new for the market here, as the ECB's head already provided all the necessary information to traders last week.
On Wednesday, traders may consider short positions if the price bounces from the 1.1615-1.1625 area, targeting 1.1534-1.1542. Long positions can be opened with targets at 1.1657-1.1666 and 1.1750-1.1760 if the price breaks through the area of 1.1615-1.1625. Longs will also be relevant on a bounce from the Ichimoku indicator lines.
Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) are thick red lines near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of the net position for each category of traders.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
