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During Monday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1577. Thus, the growth process may continue toward the next retracement level of 76.4% at 1.1696. A consolidation below the 1.1577 level would favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1440.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave broke the previous peak. Thus, the trend may be shifting back to a "bullish" one. Donald Trump's actions in the Middle East triggered large-scale military operations in the region involving about a dozen countries, which allowed the dollar to strengthen as a "safe-haven" currency. However, this week Washington has moved toward reconciliation, putting pressure on the dollar.
There were no economic releases scheduled on Monday, but Donald Trump changed the situation by unexpectedly announcing productive negotiations with Iran, which led him to postpone his decision to strike energy infrastructure by five days. Iran immediately denied the US president's statement, but the market interpreted this as the first steps toward ending the conflict. According to various insider reports, negotiations between Tehran and Washington have not yet taken place, but are planned in the near future. It is difficult to say how they will end, but it is still better than nothing. Markets have no choice but to hope for the best. Of course, traders generally do not care which direction a pair moves, but I believe everyone would welcome an end to the war in the Middle East and a decline in energy prices. Thus, we can only wait for new statements from Tehran and Washington and hope for negotiations and peace. The more signals the market receives about the possibility of ending the war, the more the bears will retreat and the dollar will weaken. In recent weeks, the US currency has strengthened solely due to geopolitical factors. Now this factor is starting to turn against the dollar.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has risen to the 76.4% Fibonacci level of 1.1617. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and lead to some decline toward the 100.0% retracement level of 1.1474. A bullish trend will become possible after the euro closes above the channel. The first target for bulls is the 1.1706 level. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 52,800 long positions and opened 31,212 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, but in recent weeks we have seen an active reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 213,000, while short positions total 191,000. The advantage of the bulls has almost completely evaporated in just a few weeks.
Overall, in the long term, major players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment in different ways. At present, all market attention is focused on the Middle East, where the war continues to escalate and expand geographically. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. For now, the dollar is benefiting the most from this situation.
Economic calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
On March 24, the economic calendar contains quite a number of relatively minor entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may be weak.
EUR/USD forecast and trader advice:
Selling the pair is possible today if it consolidates below the 1.1577 level, with a target of 1.1440. Buy trades could have been opened after a rebound from 1.1440 with a target of 1.1577, which has already been reached. New buying opportunities emerged after a close above 1.1577, with a target of 1.1696.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
