The legend in the InstaSpot team!
Legend! You think that's bombastic rhetoric? But how should we call a man, who became the first Asian to win the junior world chess championship at 18 and who became the first Indian Grandmaster at 19? That was the start of a hard path to the World Champion title for Viswanathan Anand, the man who became a part of history of chess forever. Now one more legend in the InstaSpot team!
Borussia is one of the most titled football clubs in Germany, which has repeatedly proved to fans: the spirit of competition and leadership will certainly lead to success. Trade in the same way that sports professionals play the game: confidently and actively. Keep a "pass" from Borussia FC and be in the lead with InstaSpot!
When everything is going wrong, people buy the dollar. The start of 2026 was marked by mass unrest. Protests took place in Iran and Minnesota, the US kidnapped the president of Venezuela, and Greenland could provoke a conflict between NATO and the United States. Germany is sending troops there, while US administration officials are confident they can negotiate with Denmark amicably.
Geopolitics has become the key driver of the greenback's strengthening; its successful start has forced Wednesday's "bulls" to revise their forecasts. Thus, Bank of America believes EUR/USD will rise to 1.17 by the end of 2026, but expects a serious correction to the uptrend in the first half of the year. The idea of lower Fed rates and fiscal stimulus from China is unlikely to materialize in Q1 or Q2. At the same time, labor-market stabilization and the strength of the US economy are exerting serious pressure on the major currency pair.
According to Bank of America, Germany's fiscal stimulus and increased EU defense spending will show effect only in the second half of the year or in Q1–Q2 2027. In addition, the European Central Bank disappointment with inflation will force it to resume a cycle of monetary easing. That would be an unpleasant surprise for EUR/USD.
Germany's economy is indeed lackluster. In 2025, it expanded by a modest 0.2% after two consecutive years of contraction. This is not comparable to US GDP, which most likely grew around 2.5% last year. According to the Bloomberg consensus forecast, 2026 is expected to see growth of about 2%. Its stronger dynamics compared with Germany's argue for buying EUR/USD.
There are signs of stabilization in the US labor market. After unemployment fell to 4.4% in December, a pleasant surprise came in the form of jobless claims. For the week ending January 10 they fell to 198k — an indicator that was below all Bloomberg analysts' forecasts. It is quite possible that with a shrinking labor force due to the administration's anti-immigration policies, the US economy does not need employment gains of more than 50k.
If the labor market has bottomed and rebounds, and strong domestic demand accelerates inflation, the Fed will have no grounds to cut the federal funds rate before the end of 2026. And that is a completely different story — favorable for the US dollar.
Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD saw the inside bar play out, which allowed shorts to be formed from 1.1630. If the bears manage to secure a close below 1.1615, the risks of a continued plunge toward 1.1500 and even 1.1400 will increase. It makes sense to continue following a strategy of selling the euro against the US dollar. A correction to the long-term uptrend in the major currency pair risks being prolonged.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
