The legend in the InstaSpot team!
Legend! You think that's bombastic rhetoric? But how should we call a man, who became the first Asian to win the junior world chess championship at 18 and who became the first Indian Grandmaster at 19? That was the start of a hard path to the World Champion title for Viswanathan Anand, the man who became a part of history of chess forever. Now one more legend in the InstaSpot team!
Borussia is one of the most titled football clubs in Germany, which has repeatedly proved to fans: the spirit of competition and leadership will certainly lead to success. Trade in the same way that sports professionals play the game: confidently and actively. Keep a "pass" from Borussia FC and be in the lead with InstaSpot!
A strong economy means a strong currency. In early June, the U.S. economy began to look strong again. EUR/USD bears anticipate a correction in the current upward trend, prompted by moderate optimism in the May labor market data. But the shift began earlier—when Donald Trump got scared—not of a stock market crash but of how his policies were impacting U.S. GDP.
To ensure a successful summer, the White House revised some plans. The first deviation occurred as early as April when the average tariff dropped from around 20–25% to 10–20%. This had a positive effect on outlooks and signaled to markets that the worst was likely behind.
The logic is simple: a 15 percentage point increase in import tariffs would accelerate inflation and cut real GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points, given that imports make up about 10% of the U.S. economy. The lower the tariffs, the better. However, China's experience casts doubt on this optimism.
Despite the May agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs from 145% to 30%—according to Bloomberg—China's exports to the U.S. fell by 34.4%. This marks the steepest drop since February 2020. Beijing is now trying to reroute its shipments to the U.S. through other countries. Exports via these countries rose by 11%, including a 22% increase through Vietnam. However, these circumvention schemes are raising concerns about Vietnam's trade balance with the U.S., which now looks dangerously skewed.
A second positive development from the White House, in terms of supporting the U.S. economy, is its retreat from the idea of fiscal consolidation. Instead of cutting budget spending as previously promised, the administration is ramping it up. The spending package could cost trillions of dollars and widen the budget deficit. Still, markets were more concerned about the U.S. cutting spending and shifting to austerity than fiscal overspending. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, there will be no default.
I believe markets are getting carried away with the idea that the worst is over. In reality, tariffs could rise again. Moreover, deteriorating relations with former allies deprive Washington of its usual crowd of Treasury bond buyers. At the same time, trust in everything in America is eroding. Combined with continued uncertainty over the White House's economic policy, this supports the sustainability of the EUR/USD uptrend.
On the daily chart of the main currency pair, bulls failed to push prices above the upper boundary of the fair value range (1.1210–1.1440). This failure signals buyer weakness and justifies considering short-term EUR/USD sales if support at 1.1385 is breached.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
