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Mixed economic data from the US had caused a downturn in stock markets, but the situation leveled off later, allowing indices to crawl back up again.
The reports indicated that GDP for Q4 declined from 3.2% to 2.9%, while weekly jobless claims dropped slightly to 186,000. The underlying durable goods orders also showed a smaller than expected decline. The only data that was positive was the quarterly core PCE index, which fell more than expected, from 4.7% to 3.9%. All this actually show that no real recession is in sight, however, the purchasing power of the US population is decreasing, so the inflationary pressure is slowing down further.
In this situation, the Fed could calmly pause its cycle of interest rate hikes for one quarter without the fear of seeing a severe fall in the economy. That could be a strong reason for a rally in equity markets, while demand for dollar will surely go under pressure.
But for today, there will probably a rise in dollar and a decline in stock indices not only in the US but also in Europe. However, the situation may change if the upcoming personal consumption index for the US show lower-than-expected figures.
Forecasts for today:
AUD/USD
The pair is currently trading below 0.7130. A breakdown of this level, which could happen if the Fed takes a pause in raising interest rates and the RBA announces a further rate hilke, will lead to a rise to 0.7235.
USD/CAD
The pair has fallen below 1.3345. If sellers manage to keep this situation and oil prices continue to rise, the quote will drop further to 1.3230.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
