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22.05.202620:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD Price Analysis and Forecast – Gold Faces a New Wave of Selling Pressure

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure; however, the asset is still managing to hold above the psychologically important $4,500 level.

The US dollar continues to strengthen, reaching a new six-week high amid hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

Additional support for the U.S. currency comes from mixed signals regarding a possible settlement between the United States and Iran, reinforcing the dollar's position as the world's primary reserve currency and consequently reducing the appeal of gold.

Market participants have now fully ruled out a Federal Reserve rate cut before the end of 2026 and are instead pricing in at least one rate hike, given rising energy prices and persistent inflationary risks.

Minutes from the April 28–29 FOMC meeting, published on Wednesday, showed that Federal Reserve officials are inclined to keep interest rates at elevated levels or even raise them further if inflation continues to remain consistently above the 2% target. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December meeting exceeds 60%.

These expectations have driven U.S. Treasury yields higher, supporting the dollar and putting pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.

Meanwhile, a senior Iranian source stated that no agreement with the United States has yet been reached, although disagreements between the parties have narrowed. At the same time, issues related to Iran's uranium enrichment program and Tehran's control over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz remain major points of tension.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran's intention to charge transit fees for ships passing through the strait effectively complicates the conclusion of a potential agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump, in turn, emphasized that Washington opposes the introduction of such fees and added that the U.S. military is prepared to seize Iran's stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support the risk premium and strengthen the U.S. dollar, pointing to the dominance of a bearish scenario for gold.

From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair continues to move within a broader descending channel, trading near the round $4,500 level while attempting to hold above it. However, it is important to note that oscillators remain in negative territory, indicating that bears continue to dominate the market.

Failure to hold above the $4,500 level could accelerate the decline toward the 200-day SMA. For bulls to regain the potential for further upside, prices must break above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs.

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Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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