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18.05.202619:43 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 18th (US Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

Due to low market volatility, none of the levels I marked were tested during the first half of the day. For this reason, I remained without any trades.

At present, expectations regarding the US NAHB index are subdued, as the US housing market continues to adjust to new challenging conditions. In the absence of other important macroeconomic reports, this builder sentiment indicator is likely to trigger only short-term price fluctuations. The key factor determining market trends remains the geopolitical situation. Statements by US President Donald Trump regarding Middle East settlement issues traditionally have a significant impact on the market and can suddenly change oil price dynamics, which in turn strongly affect risk assets and the US dollar. In the event of rising commodity prices, the yen may face another wave of significant selling pressure.

At the same time, the G7 summit may introduce additional adjustments. In conditions of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, market participants will also look for guidance there.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 158.98 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 159.47 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.47, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal move of 30–35 points. Growth in the pair today is only possible if US data is strong.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 158.82 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. The pair could then rise toward 158.98 and 159.47.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 158.83 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 158.40, where I will exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure may return if US data is weak.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 158.98 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 158.83 and 158.40 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated take-profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated take-profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – use overbought and oversold zones when entering trades

Important

Beginner Forex traders must make trading decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*Phân tích thị trường được đăng tải ở đây có nghĩa là để gia tăng nhận thức của bạn, nhưng không đưa ra các chỉ dẫn để thực hiện một giao dịch.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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