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On Thursday, the dollar continued yesterday's rapid growth. As you know, following the results of the meeting yesterday, the Fed leaders unanimously and expectedly raised the interest rate by 0.75%. However, this decision did not cause a strengthening of the dollar. On the contrary, in the first minutes after the publication of the Fed's decision on rates, the dollar weakened sharply. The dollar began to strengthen sharply after 30 minutes when the Fed's press conference began, during which Chairman Jerome Powell gave a very hawkish assessment of the prospects for the monetary policy of the US central bank for the coming months.
"It's very premature, in my view, to think about or to be talking about pausing our rate hikes," Powell told the press conference, promising also in December to give "an updated view of where rates should move." At the same time, he nevertheless introduced some intrigue, saying that "the time to slow down the rate increase may come as early as December or February."
He acknowledged that "the US economy has slowed significantly compared to last year," but "without price stability, there is no sustainable strong labor market."
"Price stability in the US is good for the world economy," Powell summed up his statements.
Thus, buyers of the dollar received quite strong confirmation of the Fed's commitment to a tough policy, at least in the coming months.
During today's Asian trading session, there was some downward correction after yesterday's strong growth in the dollar. However, at the beginning of today's European trading session, the strengthening of the dollar resumed.
As of writing, the dollar index (DXY) is near 112.60, 125 points higher than the opening price of yesterday's trading day, also returning to the levels of 2 weeks ago and in the upper part of the range formed between the local support and resistance levels 114.74 and 109.37.
Today, another surge of volatility is expected in the foreign exchange market. First of all, this will affect the British pound and the GBP/USD pair: at 12:00 (GMT), the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate will be published, and from 12:30 to 14:00, a whole block of important macro statistics on the USA will be published.
Market participants are waiting for the next increase in the interest rate from the Bank of England, by 0.75% to 3.0%. This is the strongest one-time rate increase since the late 80s, which indicates, firstly, the high level of inflation in the UK and, secondly, the determination of of the BoE to fight it.
This is a strong fundamental bullish factor for the pound. Nevertheless, its weakening is observed, including in cross-pairs. The markets may take into account a softer decision on the interest rate, as well as the "dovish" rhetoric of subsequent statements by the leaders of the Bank of England. They are likely to present today's decision as exceptional, with the intention of returning to smaller steps to raise rates. If the rhetoric of the accompanying statements is really perceived by market participants as dovish, then this could push the pound even deeper down.
Despite the efforts of the bank, inflation in the UK is at multi-year highs (it reached 10.1% in September). With winter approaching and energy supply turmoil threatening to push inflation even higher, the indecision of the BoE can be regarded by participants as a difficult situation in the British economy, in which the bank's managers are forced to act very carefully.
At 12:30 (GMT), Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will explain the decision and the prospects for monetary policy.
As of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.1250, having fallen sharply at the start of today's European trading session.
If the results of today's meeting of the Bank of England really disappoint market participants, then the GBP/USD pair risks "falling" even lower, heading towards the September lows and the 1.0353 mark, especially if strong macro data from the US will help.
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