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Today, it seems that the euro and the pound are waiting for another decline, even though the Euro currency may even show some semblance of growth at first. After all, the composite PMI will clearly be better than the preliminary estimate even if the PMI in the service sector turns out to be the same as the preliminary estimate showed, which rose from 50.5 points to 51.5 points.
It should be noted that the composite index grew from 53.8 points to 56.9 points, but this forecast is based on the values that the preliminary estimate showed. The point is that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector turned out to be much better than the preliminary estimate. In other words, the worst-case scenario will be the composite index will show slightly higher growth, which will clearly contribute to the growth of the single European currency.
Services PMI (Europe):
However, the situation is somewhat different with the pound. The fact is that the final data on the PMI in the manufacturing sector turned out to be worse than the preliminary estimate. In other words, if the index of business activity in the service sector expectedly grows from 61.0 points to 61.8 points, the composite index will still show the wrong values that are expected from it. A preliminary estimate at the time showed its growth from 60.7 points to 62.0 points. It is very likely that the growth will be somewhat more modest, which will negatively affect the pound's position.
Services PMI (UK):
All this applies only to the European session, while all the most interesting things will happen after the opening of the American one. The greatest interest is caused by employment, which is expected to rise by 600 thousand. This is not so much compared to the previous month, but this is significantly more than in each of the previous six months. In particular, we are talking about a strong recovery in the labor market, which is an extremely positive factor that will contribute to the strengthening of the US dollar before tomorrow's publication of the US Department of Labor report.
At the same time, all other indicators will only strengthen this effect. Here, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits should decline by 6 thousand, and repeated applications should also do so by 62 thousand. Moreover, the index of business activity in the service sector is forecasted to grow from 64.7 points to 70.1 points. But the composite index of business activity, which should grow from 63.5 points to 68.1 points, will almost certainly show a slightly stronger result. After all, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector increased more than the preliminary estimate showed.
Employment Change (United States):
The EUR/USD pair moved towards the variable pivot point of 1.2160 after rebounding from the resistance area, from which a slight slowdown and a local price rebound occurred. The optimism of buyers was temporary since sellers resumed their decline as early as during the new trading day, which will likely lead to another piercing of the pivot point.
The GBP/USD pair is still moving in the sideways channel 1.4100/1.4245, consistently developing the set borders. In this case, traders consider price fluctuations in the lower part of the channel.
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