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In the near future, the euro may show a significant rise. Today, the euro/dollar pair is losing in value. The US bonds market is exerting the most significant pressure on it. The yield on the US treasury bonds rose above 1.60%, thus supporting the US dollar. However, traders should not pay attention to the current situation. In fact, everything may change significantly.
Everybody is waiting for Jerome Powell's speech. His hints and comments will shape the US dollar trend for the next few months. As a result, this will affect the euro/dollar pair.
Market participants are cautious ahead of the Fed Chairman's comments. They hope for hints that the regulator will close the QE program in the next few months. The regulator will hardly change its rhetoric, as the US economy is not as stable as expected.
The US economy is growing amid the vaccination process and financial stimulus measures. Millions of the US citizens still do have jobs. The labor market remains sluggish. GDP is boosted by external factors, but it will hardly rise without support. That is why Jerome Powell is unlikely to change his approach.
Although most indicators are stable, the economy still needs additional stimulus measures.
The US Fed will not hurry and follow the example of the Bank of Canada, which was the first to announce a change in its monetary policy. The regulator is waiting for stability or at least, it should be sure that the economy is ready to exist independently.
It means that markets should take into account that the loose monetary policy will be unchanged in the next few years. Since investors do not receive new information, the US dollar may not show a sharp drop at once. However, in the mid-term perspective the US dollar will remain under pressure.
The current rise in the US dollar index is likely to be stopped. It may slide from 91.00, the level it was trying to reach since January, to 90.00, a low logged in February. Then, it may hit its 3-year low of 89.00.
The euro continues gaining in value not only due to the greenback's possible drop. The fact is that the vaccination pace in the eurozone has accelerated and the number of infected people is declining. France and Spain are planning to withdraw lockdown measures. Some regions of Spain could be opened for tourists as early as in June.
The period when the euro was disappointing traders is in the past. Then, the vaccination process was really slow. Now, the euro will enter the race.
Thus, the euro/dollar pair may advance to 1.2000 and even to 1.2350.
Today, the pair is likely to hover between the levels of 1.2020 and 1.2180. The initial resistance level is located at 1.2095 (daily high), 1.2117 ( a high logged in April), and 1.2180. The support level is located at 1.2060, 1.2000, and 1.1950.
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