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18.08.202012:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold rally continues

At the beginning of this month, gold renewed its high of $ 2,075 per ounce, but then dropped sharply to $ 1,863 last Wednesday.

However, the correction did not surprise anyone, since the precious metal grew in price almost continuously for two months. The quote, sooner or later, needs to decline a little in order to get used to the new support levels and, after a short pause, will continue to rise in the market.

Hence, gold is now eyeing new heights, preparing to jump to $ 2,100 an ounce. According to experts, this mark is very important for the precious metal, since its achievement will be evidenced by the real, not nominal, conquest of the 2011 record high of $ 1,923 per ounce.

Admittedly, gold has every reason for a historic leap. Leading central banks continue to pump cheap cash into the global economy, US government bond yields are low, the coronavirus pandemic is still raging around the world, and US-China relations are deteriorating every day.

Gold also has gained almost 3% on Monday, having recouped most of last week's losses. Today, the precious metal continues to grow in price, consolidating above $ 2,000 per ounce.

According to Johns Hopkins University, coronavirus cases in the world have approached 22 million. This raises concerns among investors that the global economic recovery will take place at a slower pace than previously thought.

Market participants are also watching the development of relations between Washington and Beijing, in which there is another increase in tension. Yesterday, the US Department of Commerce announced new measures to restrict Chinese tech giant, Huawei, access to key components for its operation.

The continued decline of the dollar also adds to the further rise of gold quotes.

Net bearish US dollar rates hit their highest since May 2011, according to CFTC data.

"Such a volume of a short position in USD creates the risk of a sharp reduction, especially if the drop stalls. However, at the moment, negative factors for the dollar remain mostly, " said OCBC Bank specialists.

Currently, the USD index is trading at around 92.5 points, remaining close to two-year highs.

This week, traders await the release of the Fed's July meeting protocol, which will be released on Wednesday. It should indicate the "dovish" position of the regulator in relation to control of the yield curve of US government bonds and inflation targeting in the country.

In addition, it is assumed that the super-soft monetary policy of the Fed, including the Central Bank's attempts to keep the yield on government bonds at a low level, will contribute to further growth in gold quotes and a depreciation of the USD.

Analysts at Citigroup expect that the precious metal may rise to $ 2,100 per ounce in the next 1-3 months, and reach $ 2,300 in 6-12 months.

"Record rates of investment capital inflow into gold ETFs, dollar drawdown and negative real Treasury yield are the main drivers of the gold rallt. The precious metal is close to renewing historical highs, which will target the bulls at $ 2,400 (the upper limit of the upward trend), " they said.

Viktor Isakov,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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