What awaits the main currency instruments in April? Variants of the movement of major currency instruments from March 31, 2020 #USDX , EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY - DAILY .
Minor operational scale (daily time frame)
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US dollar Index
Starting March 31, 2020, the movement of the dollar index #USDX will continue to develop within the equilibrium zone (98.75 - 99.90 - 101.10) Minor operational scale forks. The details of working out the above levels are presented on the animated chart.
In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 101.10) of the equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks, it will be possible to continue upward movement of the dollar index to goals:
- the initial line of SSL Minuette (102.20);
- maximum 110.60 ;
with the prospect of reaching the warning line UWL38.2 (103.80) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
On the other hand, if the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (support level of 98.75) is broken down in the equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks, it will be confirmed that further development of the #USDX movement will occur in the equilibrium zone of the forks (99.15 - 97.90 - 96.75) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL line (95.20) of the Minor operational scale forks.
The markup of #USDX movement options on March 31, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.
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Euro vs US dollar
From March 31, 2020, the single European currency EUR / USD will continue to develop the movement depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (1.0880 - 1.0985 - 1.1090) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details are shown in the animated chart.
In case of the breakdown of the lower boundary (support level of 1.0880) of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, it will be possible to reach the initial SSL Minuette line (1.0810) and the LTL control line (1.0790) of the Minor operational scale forks, and in case of breakdown of these levels, the downward movement of EUR / USD will be directed to a minimum of 1.0637.
Alternatively, the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1090 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will lead to the resumption of the upward movement of the single European currency to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1150 - 1.1320 - 1.1496) of the Minuette operational scale forks.
The movement options of EUR / USD from March 31, 2020, depending on the development of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel, are shown on the animated chart.
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Great Britain pound vs US dollar
The development of Her Majesty's currency movement of GBP / USD / USD from March 31, 2020 will be determined by developing the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line (1.2095 - 1.2300 - 1.2525) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The traffic marking details in this channel is shown on the animated chart.
If there will be a breakdown of the lower boundary (support level of 1.2095) of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, then the development of the downward movement of GBP / USD to the levels will become relevant :
-1.1958 - control line LTL of the Minor operational scale forks;
- 1.1700 - warning line LWL61.8 Minor;
- 1.1475 - SSL Minuette start line.
In contrast, the breakdown of the upper boundary (resistance level of 1.2525) of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will confirm the further development of Her Majesty's currency movement in the equilibrium zone (1.2370 - 1.2675 - 1.2965) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the possibility of continuing it already in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2870 - 1.3150 - 1.3425) of the Minor operational scale forks.
The movement options of GBP/USD from March 31, 2020 are presented on the animated chart.
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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen
The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (105.80 - 107.15 108.50) of the Minuette operational scale forks will determine the development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the country of the rising sun from March 31, 2020. The details of the processing of the above levels are presented on the animated chart.
In case of breakdown of the upper boundary (resistance level of 108.50) of ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, then the upward movement of USD / JPY to the targets will become possible :
- 1/2 Median Line (109.45) of the Minor operational scale forks;
- upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minor channel (110.60);
with the prospect (after the breakdown of these resistance levels) to reach the final Schiff Line Minuette (111.50) and maximum 112.25.
In case of breakdown of the lower boundary (support level of 105.80) of the equilibrium zone ISL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale forks, then there may be a continuation of the downward movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" to the goals:
- control line LTL (104.40) of the Minor operational scale forks;
- warning line LWL61.8 Minor (103.10).
The markup of the USD/JPY movement options on March 31, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.
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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").
The formula for calculating the dollar index :
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6% ;
Yen - 13.6% ;
Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.
The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.
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