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The EUR/USD pair traded sideways on Tuesday, and traders saw no reason to open risk positions ahead of the Fed meeting. Thus, the euro has reached a certain low from which it may rebound and begin a new bullish trend. Today, caution is required with any trading signals, as the outcome of the Fed meeting will be announced in the evening and may trigger fluctuations in either direction.
The wave situation on the hourly chart has turned bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Geopolitical developments remain consistently negative and have every chance of escalating in the near future. The market expects the FOMC to tighten monetary policy. These two factors have brought bearish traders back to the market.
The fundamental backdrop was extremely weak on Tuesday, and traders showed no interest in the economic expectations indices for Europe and Germany or in the weekly ADP report. However, the market will not lack information today. The outcome of the Fed meeting will be announced in the evening, and by all indications, it should be hawkish. However, the question is how hawkish it will be. The baseline scenario of an interest rate hike has already been priced in and reflected in the market. Thus, only a more hawkish stance from Kevin Warsh and the FOMC committee may allow the bears to continue their attacks and the dollar to continue rising. For dollar buying to continue, the market must believe that there will be at least two monetary policy tightening steps in 2026. Kevin Warsh's rhetoric should be fully focused on fighting inflation, while the FOMC committee should signal its intention to continue raising rates through the dot plot. A simple rate hike accompanied by broad comments from Warsh is unlikely to convince traders to continue buying the US currency.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1649 and declined toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1526. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and some growth toward 1.1649. Consolidation below 1.1526 would increase the chances of a continued decline toward the next retracement level of 23.6% at 1.1449. No developing divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 4,968 Long positions and opened 12,723 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated due to the war in Iran, while over the past twenty-four weeks, the situation has leveled out amid market hopes for an end to the conflict. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 198,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 241,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is narrowing.
Overall, over the long term, major market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war alternately appears to end and then starts again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.
US and EU Economic Calendar:
On September 16, the economic calendar contains six entries, of which I will highlight only those related to the Fed meeting. The impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment on Wednesday may be strong in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Buying the pair is possible today following a rebound from the 1.1519 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1564 and 1.1621. Selling opportunities arose following consolidation below 1.1621 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1551 and 1.1519. These trades should now be closed in profit.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.1325–1.1712 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
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