Bitcoin once again failed to consolidate above the $79,000 resistance level, retreating to $78,300, while Ether remained stuck below $2,500, trading around $2,451 after failing to hold Friday's highs.
Today was no exception to this pattern: every new attempt by both assets to break above the upper boundary of the range has been met with buyers' refusal to continue the move, while pressure on the cryptocurrency market has persisted for a third consecutive session. Strong U.S. employment data and rising Treasury yields have only reinforced this dynamic. Against this backdrop, the statistics I discussed this morning look particularly concerning. Unrealized profits held by short-term whale holders reached a record $9.07 billion, and it appears that part of this amount has already begun to translate into actual selling pressure.
This benefits market participants who have been waiting for a correction to enter at lower prices, but it is unfavorable for those holding long positions opened recently above $75,000. I discussed this in detail in my morning forecast. However, the longer Bitcoin remains range-bound without setting new highs, the greater the nervousness among holders of large unrealized profits. Rising nervousness, in turn, triggers precisely the selling that the market is trying to avoid.
Should the current pullback be considered the beginning of a deeper correction? It is still too early to say, as the broader technical picture remains favorable. The 200-day moving average is currently near $71,000, providing solid downside support even after the rapid rise from $63,000 to $80,000 in late summer. Nevertheless, repeated failures at $81,000 are gradually turning this level into a much more significant psychological barrier than it appeared to be a week ago.
In my view, the market is currently in a phase where a fundamentally strong long-term structure is coming up against short-term buyer fatigue and a growing willingness among whales to take profits. I expect that without a new significant catalyst, whether in the form of a softer Federal Reserve stance or a clear acceleration in spot ETF inflows, Bitcoin and Ether will spend the next few days moving sideways below resistance. At the same time, the probability of a sharper pullback toward the $75,000–76,000 level will increase with each unsuccessful attempt to break above the upper boundary of the range.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Bitcoin continues to hold within the same $78,300–78,900 level, and the day's structure is based on two opposing approaches: trading breakouts of the boundaries and trading rebounds from them. The first buying scenario involves entering around $78,600 if the price breaks confidently above this level, with a target of $78,900. At that level, the plan is to take profit and almost immediately reverse into a short position on a pullback, as after a breakout, the price rarely continues higher without a correction near the nearest resistance level. Such a position should be opened only if two conditions are met simultaneously: the price must remain above the 50-day moving average, and the Awesome Oscillator must remain in positive territory, confirming that buyers have not yet lost momentum. The second buying scenario is triggered at the opposite edge of the range if the price falls toward $78,300 but the break below the boundary is not confirmed by further downside movement. This is a classic sign of a false breakout, and a long position can be opened from this level, targeting a return first to $78,600 and then to $78,900.
Sell positions are structured as the mirror image of the buying scenarios. A confirmed break below $78,300 opens the way for a short position targeting $78,000. At that level, the plan calls for closing the position and reversing into a long position on a potential rebound, as declines, like advances, rarely continue without a pause. The entry conditions here are the opposite: the moving average should be above the price, while the Awesome Oscillator should be below zero. The second short-selling scenario works from the upper boundary at $78,600 if there is no reaction to an upside breakout, providing an opportunity to move toward both lower targets in sequence: first $78,300 and then $78,000.
Ether is holding within the $2,465–2,500 level, and the same logic used for Bitcoin applies here without changes, with the price levels adjusted accordingly. A break above $2,480 opens a long position targeting $2,501. Once this level is reached, the plan calls for taking profit and considering a short position on a pullback under the same conditions: a rising moving average below the price and the Awesome Oscillator in positive territory. From the lower boundary at $2,465, if a break below it is not confirmed, a long position can also be opened, targeting first $2,480 and then $2,501.
Ether sell positions start from $2,465 with a target of $2,442, and here again, once the target is reached, the plan calls for reversing into a long position on a rebound. A short position should be opened when the price is below the moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory. The second selling scenario is triggered at the upper boundary of $2,480 if there is no reaction to an upward breakout, leading to the same two downward targets in sequence. Both indicators remain filters for excluding false moves rather than reasons to enter the market in advance, so the decision should be made only after the price provides actual confirmation at the specified levels.
*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.
Uz InstaSpot-ove analitičke preglede uvek ćete biti u toku sa tržišnim trendovima! Klijentima InstaSpot-a su dostupni mnogobrojni besplatni servisi za uspešno trgovanje.
