13.10.202609:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil – October 13: Breaking the Bearish Channel.

The 4-hour (H4) chart for Crude Oil (#CL) reveals a pivotal positive shift in price action; the asset is currently trading at the 92.26 level after buyers successfully broke above the upper boundary of the primary bearish channel and stabilized above the weekly pivot point.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price has successfully exited the primary bearish channel (blue) that previously exerted downward pressure, entering a new bullish channel characterized by positive momentum (pink/red). Currently, the price is undergoing a minor bearish correction within this new bullish channel following a recent touch of its upper boundary and a test of resistance levels near 94.27.

Interaction with Pivot Levels: Crude Oil rallied upward after establishing a strong local low above the first weekly support level (Weekly S1) at 87.94. The recent bullish surge successfully broke decisively above the weekly pivot line at 90.57 and clearly breached the first weekly resistance level (Weekly R1) at 94.27 before the current corrective pullback. The price currently holds a positive position above the weekly pivot, transforming it into a key support level that underpins the continuation of the bullish wave.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 94.27 (Weekly R1). Second Resistance: 96.90 (Weekly R2 and the upper boundary of the ascending channel).

Pivotal Resistance: 100.60 (Weekly R3).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 91.50 (Midline of the ascending channel and the upper boundary of the previously broken descending channel).

Second Support: 90.57 (Weekly Pivot).

Key Support: 87.94 (Weekly S1).

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations

Bullish Scenario (Primary):

A positive trend currently prevails in the near term; the deciding factor is maintaining stability above the Weekly Pivot (90.57) and within the pink ascending channel.

Recommendation: Buy upon the completion of the current correction and a retest of the 91.50–90.57 levels, accompanied by the appearance of a bullish reversal candle.

Technical Targets: Retargeting Weekly R1 at 94.27 as the first target, followed by an extension toward Weekly R2 at 96.90.

Stop Loss: A 4-hour candle close below the 90.00 level.

Bearish Corrective Scenario (Alternative):

Triggered if the price breaks below the Weekly Pivot (90.57) and returns to trading within the blue descending channel.

Confirmation Condition: A 4-hour candle close below 90.57. Technical Targets: Re-targeting the first weekly support zone at 87.94.

Risk Management

Trading during trend reversals requires strict adherence to capital management protocols, limiting risk to no more than 1%–2% of the total account balance per trade to protect capital against sudden volatility.

The daily chart for Crude Oil (#CL) shows price action fluctuating around the 92.24 level; the price maintains a general trajectory within an ascending channel structure, despite facing temporary corrective pressure after failing to break through upper resistance levels.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Channel Structure: The price is moving within a broad, primary ascending channel (blue) and a steeper, secondary ascending channel (pink/red). Notably, the price has rebounded upward from the channel's midline and the lower boundary of the secondary channel following the recent pullback, reflecting the resilience of buying pressure at the channel's technical support.

Interaction with Monthly Pivot Levels: The price is currently trading below the Monthly Pivot level at 94.39, which acts as a key resistance barrier preventing a return of strong positive momentum. Simultaneously, the price remains above the first monthly support level (Monthly S1) at 82.07 and above the previous month's pivot point; this sustains a positive medium-term outlook, provided the price holds above these support levels.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Key Resistance Levels:

Resistance 1: 94.39 (Monthly Pivot).

Resistance 2: 102.65 (Monthly R1 and the upper boundary of the secondary channel). Key Resistance: Levels at 105.00 and above (upper boundary of the main channel).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 90.40 – 91.00 (recent intraday lows and the channel's midline).

Second Support: 82.07 (Monthly S1 support level).

Key Support: 73.81 (Monthly S2 support level and the lower boundary of the main channel).

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations

Bullish Scenario (Primary):

A positive trend is likely in the medium term, provided the price maintains its trading within the ascending channel and holds above the key support level.

Recommendation: Buy upon the appearance of bullish reversal signals when the price touches the channel's midline or retests the 90.40 level.

Technical Targets: Aim to break the monthly pivot point at 94.39 as a first target, followed by an extension toward 102.65 (Monthly R1).

Stop Loss: A daily close below 89.50.

Bearish Corrective Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if the price breaks the channel's midline and drops below nearby support levels.

Confirmation Condition: A clear daily candle break below the 90.40 level.

Technical Targets: Extension of the bearish correction to target the first monthly support at 82.07. Risk Management

Trading crude oil on a daily timeframe requires strict adherence to capital management rules, limiting risk to a maximum of 1% to 2% per trade, and carefully placing stop-loss orders to protect the portfolio from sharp price fluctuations.