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US equity futures climbed, and Asian markets also gained after fresh OpenAI revenue data suggested the tech-sector weakness on Wall Street may be limited. S&P 500 futures added 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.5%, Asian indices gained about 0.3%, and European futures showed a firm open. A pullback in Brent offered additional relief. However, I view this as a headline-driven bounce rather than a durable shift in sentiment.
The recent sell-off was sparked by a Financial Times report that recalculated OpenAI's annual revenue at roughly $20 billion below previously cited levels. The chip-makers index fell by 3.4%, and tech names became the primary drag on the S&P 500. OpenAI still projects it will reach or exceed $70 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2026, largely driven by corporate sales. For comparison, Anthropic's annualized revenue had already reached $65 billion by the end of July.
That gap in top-line figures can move stocks sharply. The market has long moved past valuing AI as a concept and now prices it on return on invested capital. Losers are companies whose data-center costs are growing faster than revenue; winners are those whose corporate contracts are already converting into cash.
The big test now is earnings season, which starts this week. The largest buyers of AI compute must show they'll keep producing big revenues. Over the past year, waves of negative AI headlines have typically lasted only a few days before sentiment recovered, but those waves are coming more frequently now.
Commodities and bonds painted a softer picture. Brent lost 1.2% to settle at $102.95/bbl after Donald Trump said the US would avoid strikes on Iran before the November midterms. Treasuries returned to buying, and yields eased. Gold gained 1.1% to trade around $4,175/oz. Recall that 10-year yields were near 5.31% yesterday, so the pullback gives the metal some breathing room, though it remains below mid-September levels near $4,350.
In my view, today, the stock market will likely trade sideways with heightened sensitivity to headlines. If earnings show revenue catching up to AI spending, the tech sector will recover, and the Nasdaq 100, which closed at record highs, could hit new highs. If major corporations signal caution on capex, yesterday's chip-maker sell-off may be the start of a deeper correction, especially if 10-year yields remain above 5%.
Turning to S&P 500 technicals, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the resistance level of $7,841. That would signal upside momentum and open a move toward $7,860. Holding $7,880 is also a priority for bulls to strengthen their position. If the price moves lower amid a drop in risk appetite, buyers must step in around $7,824. A break below that level would likely push the index down to $7,810 and open the way to $7,793.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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