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Gold has returned to around $4,600 per ounce today, recovering most of the losses from the previous session. Silver has added 1.4 percent to $69.04, and both platinum and palladium have also increased in price.
Recall that on Wednesday, the metal ended a five-day growth streak after data showed that U.S. inflation remains significantly above the Federal Reserve's target, increasing the chances of a rate hike. At that time, the dollar posted its strongest two-week gain, and bond yields rose. Nevertheless, as of August, gold is up nearly 15 percent, and the main driver of this growth was the unexpected intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the bond market last week.
The nature of this rally is fundamentally different from the classic logic of interest rates. Attempts to control the cost of servicing the U.S. debt mountain have revived interest in the so-called devaluation trade, which fueled last year's record rally in gold, when investors bought the metal as protection against uncontrollable budget deficits and dollar weakness. The sustained recovery in recent weeks has also pushed the metal above the 200-day moving average, often seen as an important indicator of long-term momentum.
A key event remains Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium, his first major appearance as Fed Chair. Investors and traders will be looking for clues regarding the central bank's approach to inflation, and for Warsh, this is an opportunity to respond to criticism regarding his lack of transparency about his views on the economy. If Warsh's speech does not lay the groundwork for a rate hike in September, the market will likely interpret it as dovish, and lower borrowing costs traditionally support non-yielding precious metals.
Significantly, the topic of central bank independence has returned to the agenda, another factor that supported last year's gold rally. Fed Governor Lisa Cook has once again dismissed unfounded allegations of mortgage fraud that President Trump has repeated, while the American leader himself is considering reviving attempts to have her removed.
A situation is unfolding where gold receives support from three directions: debt, monetary, and institutional, which is why Friday's speech is so significant.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at $4,656. This will allow them to target $4,708, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The most distant target will be around $4,738. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control over $4,592. If they succeed, a breakout below this range will deliver a serious blow to bull positions and push gold down to a low of $4,546, with a prospect of reaching $4,481.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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