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Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure as the US dollar shows positive dynamics ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, putting pressure on the precious metal, although the decline appears limited.
The US inflation data due today, as well as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, should provide additional clues about the future path of Fed interest rates. These expectations, in turn, will influence the US dollar exchange rate and the price of gold.
Expectations that monetary policy will remain unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 15–16 are strengthening amid easing inflationary pressures and weakness in the labor market. It is also worth noting that the US Treasury's bond-buying strategy is likely to lead to a further decline in US Treasury yields. In addition, two senior officials pointed to the possibility that the Treasury could use nearly $1 trillion in its General Account to finance recent plans to increase purchases of longer-term bonds. Positive developments in the Middle East crisis are putting pressure on oil prices, easing inflation concerns and affecting US Treasury yields.
This could limit gains in the US dollar and create favorable conditions for the precious metal to rise.
Oil prices fell to nearly a two-week low after Iran announced the resumption of talks with Oman on regulating commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The countries deemed it necessary to discuss the establishment of a temporary joint shipping corridor through this strategically important waterway. In addition, the United States offered Iran sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade in exchange for reopening the strait and halting attacks carried out by its regional proxies. This has revived hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the United States and Iran, which could further weaken the dollar and thereby increase the price of gold. Against this backdrop, convincing follow-through selling would be required to confirm a short-term top.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakout above the 200-day SMA and consolidation above $4,600 favor the bulls. However, the round-number level of $4,700 has provided resistance. Nevertheless, the oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory, indicating a possible correction. The nearest support is provided by the round-number level of $4,600. Below this level, the bulls have support from the 200-day SMA. A decline below this level would give the bears an advantage.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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