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The test of the 1.1580 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.
The positive ZEW report failed to support the single currency, and the euro remained almost unaffected by the rise in German indices. The Economic Sentiment Indicator rose to 34.2 in August, while the assessment of the current situation increased by 16.5 points. The index is based on surveys of analysts and reflects their outlook on economic prospects; however, the key factor for the market was the gap between expectations and reality, as the current situation remained extremely weak at -61.1 despite the sharp improvement. A similar situation was observed in the eurozone, where expectations increased by 8.0 points to 31.4, while the assessment of the current situation improved by 16.2 points but remained negative at -21.5.
The euro will then spend the second half of the day awaiting a significant block of US economic data that could bring renewed pressure on the single currency. The releases will include building permits, housing starts, industrial production, and the capacity utilization rate. Construction data reflects the outlook for the real estate sector, as permits and housing starts provide an indication of future activity, while industrial production together with capacity utilization show the state of the real economy and influence expectations regarding Fed policy. The outlook for the single currency remains cautious. If the data is strong, as it was yesterday, demand for the dollar will increase, putting pressure on EUR/USD, while weak figures would support the euro.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought if the price reaches the area of 1.1583 (the green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.1609. At 1.1609, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. A rise in the euro can only be expected today after weak US economic data. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started moving upward from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1571 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1583 and 1.1609 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1571 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1553 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if the data is strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started moving downward from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1583 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1571 and 1.1553 can be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders need to make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an initially losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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