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On Monday, at the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil was trading at approximately $81.60.
Despite this slight drop, geopolitical tension in the Middle East continues to support oil prices amid concerns about potential disruptions in global supplies. Moreover, according to Reuters, the Yemeni Houthis have declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. A military representative of the group stated that the measure takes effect immediately, calling it a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, although no further details about how it will be enforced were provided.
In addition, the conflict between the United States and Iran remains a key factor influencing market sentiment. The U.S. continues military operations against Iranian facilities while Tehran firmly stands on the defense of the Strait of Hormuz—a strategically important maritime route for global energy exports. Any prolonged disruptions in navigation through this waterway could significantly reduce global oil supply volumes.
Nonetheless, the market is also receiving signals regarding ongoing diplomatic efforts. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated that Tehran combines military and diplomatic approaches based on its national interests, denying the notion that these two approaches cannot coexist. He also confirmed that in recent days, messages have been exchanged between intermediaries and Iranian officials aimed at reducing tension, indicating attempts at unofficial diplomacy despite ongoing hostilities.
ING analysts emphasize that the oil market remains highly susceptible to potential supply shocks. The bank notes that tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz is facing significant difficulties, and the expected cessation of oil releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve may make the market more vulnerable to supply-related risks. ING also highlighted that speculative investors significantly increased their net long positions in ICE Brent contracts last week, indicating a persistent bullish sentiment despite high volatility.
Thus, oil prices remain under pressure, balancing between fading hopes prompted by ongoing diplomatic activity and fears that any new escalation in the Middle East may again trigger concerns about supply disruptions.
From a technical perspective, oscillators are mixed, indicating volatility and that a direction has not yet been chosen. For bulls to gain more confidence in growth, overcoming the 50-day and 100-day SMAs is necessary. Oil has found support at the 50-day EMA. The next support level is the round figure of $78.00.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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