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Despite yesterday's surge in optimism driven by Trump's statements, gold has little chance of rising at the moment.
Currently, gold has retraced most of yesterday's gains and is trading around $4,537 per ounce. This indicates that the market is closely monitoring the developments in negotiations between the US and Iran, with each new headline moving the metal up and down—this sideways movement has been a characteristic feature of gold since the end of last week.
Yesterday, Trump stated that he authorized a new wave of strikes on Iran this week but is refraining from carrying them out after requests from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to give diplomacy another chance. However, the Iranian proposal, transmitted through Pakistani intermediaries, has already been rejected by the White House as insufficient. In other words, there is a pause, but no progress.
Pressure on gold is coming from several fronts. The yield on Treasury bonds remains near multi-year highs, making the non-yielding metal less attractive. The dollar gained 0.2%, making gold more expensive for buyers outside the US. Additionally, since the beginning of the conflict, the metal has lost nearly 14%—a paradox for an asset traditionally considered a safe haven in periods of geopolitical turmoil. However, inflation intervenes, significantly altering the situation in the moment. The explanation is simple: war has driven up inflation, inflation has pushed rates higher, and high rates exert more pressure on gold than fear does.
Silver dropped even more aggressively yesterday—down 2% to $75.80. Platinum and palladium also declined.
Many traders expect pressure on the metal to persist in the short term, but in the long term, gold remains seen as a hedging tool against global uncertainty. Given that neither the Iranian conflict nor the inflationary narrative has been resolved, this logic remains valid—it will simply have to materialize later.
As for the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at $4,607. This will allow targeting $4,656, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The most distant target will be around $4,708. If gold falls, bears will aim to take control of $4,546. If they succeed, a breakout from this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4,481, with the prospect of a move to $4,432.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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