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Silver (XAG/USD) starts the new week on a negative note, dropping to $73.50, reflecting a 2.41% loss as of Monday. The white metal is facing profit-taking amid a strengthening dollar and rising Treasury yields.
Events in the Strait of Hormuz continue to heighten market uncertainty. Iranian state media reports that missiles were allegedly fired at an American warship near this strategically important waterway after the vessel reportedly ignored warnings from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Although US officials have denied any damage to ships, this incident underscores the fragility of the current situation.
Washington, in turn, has initiated a naval operation to ensure the safety of commercial shipping routes in the region, prompting Tehran to warn of possible retaliatory measures with an increased military presence. The lack of progress in diplomatic negotiations between the two countries continues to fuel high levels of tension.
However, despite their traditional role, the current geopolitical context does not provide sustainable support for precious metals, as capital flows are primarily directed toward the US dollar.
The US currency benefits from rising demand for safe-haven assets and receives additional support from increasing Treasury yields, which directly pressures silver—a non-yielding asset. With expectations that interest rates will remain high for an extended period, silver's appeal diminishes.
Expectations regarding monetary policy remain a key factor influencing the market. Market participants believe the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance amid ongoing inflationary risks, some of which are fueled by high energy prices linked to potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are shifting the timelines for anticipated easing of monetary policy while pricing in the possibility of tightening in the long term.
Against this backdrop, the combination of a strong US dollar, rising bond yields, and persistent hawkish expectations regarding interest rates continues to limit silver's growth potential.
Investors should pay attention to upcoming macroeconomic data from the US—particularly labor market and business activity indicators—as well as speeches from Federal Reserve representatives for additional signals regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.
From a technical perspective, the drop below the 100-day SMA favors the bears; however, the 200-day SMA is angled upwards, indicating that silver will rise in the long term. In the near term, oscillators are negative, confirming the bulls' advantage. If prices cannot hold above the round level of 70.00, they will accelerate the decline to the 200-day EMA, then to the 200-day SMA, and finally to the round level of 61.00.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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