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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday made another consolidation below the 1.3513–1.3539 level, and this morning rebounded from that zone from below. Thus, during the day, bears may attack toward the support level of 1.3428–1.3437. A consolidation above the 1.3513–1.3539 level would favor the pound and some growth toward the Fibonacci level of 61.8% – 1.3596.
The wave situation remains "bullish." The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, and the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics gave bears almost complete dominance in the market for two months, then for three weeks the geopolitical background supported bulls. At present, the situation in the Middle East is contradictory, so traders are in pause mode. To break the "bullish" trend, two downward waves or a break below the April 6 low are required.
There was no news background in the UK and the US on Tuesday. All the most important UK reports were released last week and were calmly ignored by the market. This week features meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, which will take place today and tomorrow, so traders are not focusing on secondary reports and events. This evening, the Fed will leave the interest rate unchanged, and no important statements are expected from Jerome Powell. Tomorrow, the Bank of England will also leave the interest rate unchanged, but the voting results of the MPC committee are of interest. The market expects all nine members to vote to keep the rate unchanged. However, the last two meetings have shown that traders are often wrong and forecasts can be misleading. It is unlikely that even one policymaker will vote for a rate cut, but a vote for a rate hike is possible. If the number of votes toward tightening monetary policy is above zero, bulls may launch a new attack before their trend is invalidated. No geopolitical news has emerged in recent days, and even Donald Trump has refrained from new threats toward Iran.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the downward trend channel, which allows for expectations of a full-fledged "bullish" trend. A rebound from the Fibonacci level of 38.2% – 1.3540 suggests some decline, but the graphical picture on the hourly chart is currently clearer, so it is advisable to monitor it more closely. No emerging divergences are observed today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,139, while short positions increased by 5,454. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively 63,000 versus 115,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market shifted toward expectations of de-escalation, but recent news suggests that a full ceasefire is still far off, and the war could resume at any moment. In that case, the advantage of the bears could become even stronger.
News calendar for the US and UK:
On April 29, the economic calendar includes five entries, among which traders should not miss the Fed meeting. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be felt in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:
Selling the pair was possible after consolidation below the 1.3513–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3428–1.3437. These trades can remain open at least until the evening. Buying is possible after a close above the 1.3513–1.3539 level with targets at 1.3596–1.3620, or after a rebound from 1.3428–1.3437.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.3866–1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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