Trade Analysis for Friday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its rather weak upward movement on Friday, and in the second half of the day, the US released a fairly important March inflation report, followed shortly by the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. It can be stated immediately that there was no market reaction to these reports and that all the most interesting events unfolded on Saturday and Sunday. It all started with the failure of negotiations between Iran and the US in Islamabad. Both sides noted the lack of progress on the most important issues related to the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear energy. Thus, peace was not achieved, and the ceasefire could end at any moment. It was also reported late at night that Donald Trump intends to block the Strait of Hormuz for Iranian vessels to make it impossible for Iranian oil to be exported to China and other countries in Asia and beyond. Therefore, on Monday morning, we may confirm the escalation of the war in the Middle East, rather than vice versa. The dollar immediately rose by 80 pips...

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Friday. Only on Monday night did the price drop to the area of 1.1655-1.1666, forming a buy signal. In the current circumstances, it is extremely difficult to expect an increase in the value of the European currency, but we may still see some growth.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend remains intact, but geopolitical factors may pull the pair down again this week. The market is continuing to trade solely on events in the Middle East and emotions. Thus, the "roller coaster" may continue for quite a while, and macroeconomic, technical, and fundamental factors are of little significance. The failure of negotiations between Iran and the US may mean the dollar is prioritized again by traders.

On Monday, novice traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1655-1.1666 area, targeting 1.1584-1.1591. A new price bounce from the 1.1655-1.1666 area will allow for the opening of long positions with a target of 1.1745-1.1754.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider are 1.1267-1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, and 1.1899-1.1908. On Monday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone, and in the US, only a secondary report on existing home sales will be released. Market attention will once again be entirely focused on geopolitical factors.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.