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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year; however, the wave structure of the trend now looks very ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and analyzing the simplest and smallest wave structures in order to make a short-term forecast, which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and imply multiple possible scenarios. The easiest approach is to trade using standard "five-three" patterns.
In the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulsive structure with an extended third wave. If this is indeed the case, then the formation of this structure has been completed, and we can expect a corrective sequence of at least three waves. Therefore, in the near future, one should expect a rise in the instrument's quotes, but within a correction relative to the latest trend segment. For now, recent wave structures fit poorly into the higher-level wave count, but the situation will become clearer over time. In the near term, the euro may recover toward the levels of 1.1666 and 1.1745.
The EUR/USD pair declined by several dozen basis points on Friday, while overall volatility remained low. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar after the release of Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data in the second half of the day turned out to be extremely weak. Therefore, I can almost immediately conclude that the market chose to ignore this data as well. Of course, there was some reaction from market participants, but hardly anyone expected that strong payrolls would result in just a few dozen points of dollar gains. However, by the end of the day, demand for the U.S. currency may increase more significantly.
Overall, market participants continue to show readiness to react only to geopolitical events. Many recent statements by Trump or senior Iranian officials have triggered strong reactions among traders. And Trump speaks quite frequently—several times a day. As a result, the market is now effectively reacting only to geopolitical news. Moreover, it is difficult to call these signals consistent. Not only do Washington and Tehran differ in rhetoric, but Trump's tone can vary even within a single speech. Nevertheless, yesterday the U.S. president once again threatened to "destroy Iran completely," which supported the dollar. The White House leader repeats similar statements daily, yet the market considers this information important—unlike labor market and unemployment reports.
Based on all of the above, the formation of the expected wave "c" will continue only if Trump shifts his rhetoric toward a more peaceful tone in the near future. In that case, EUR/USD would have a chance to rise at least toward the 1.17 area. After that, perhaps the "two weeks" Trump mentioned for resolving the conflict will expire.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the short term it has completed a downward wave sequence. Since the five-wave impulsive structure is complete, readers may expect price growth over the next week with targets near 1.1666 and 1.1745, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels. Further movement will depend entirely on developments in the Middle East.
On a smaller timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the higher-level wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such cases do occur. I would like to remind that it is better to identify clear and understandable structures on charts rather than strictly adhere to labeling every wave. The trend may reverse in the near future.
Key principles of my analysis:
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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