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The EUR/USD pair continues a slow upward movement amid complete geopolitical uncertainty. Over the past few days, the pair has changed direction several times, while traders have been ignoring chart patterns. On Monday, Donald Trump stated that the war in the Middle East would end soon, which immediately caused sellers to retreat. However, half an hour later, Iran announced that no negotiations with the United States were taking place and that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. Markets believed Trump on Monday, but this is unlikely to happen again. Further growth will only be possible if his statements are supported by concrete facts, which is not the case at present.
The entire rise of the US dollar over the past 4–5 weeks has been driven by geopolitics. That is why I have repeatedly said that I do not believe in the end of the bullish trend, despite the break of key trend-forming lows. At the moment, imbalance 12 can be considered invalidated, but at the same time, there has been no reaction to imbalance 11. Thus, both buyers and sellers may remain active. The movement of the past two months could develop into a bearish trend if geopolitics continues to support the dollar. However, at this stage, I am still not convinced that the bullish trend has ended. In any case, there are currently no new signals—neither bullish nor bearish.
I will only consider a continuation of the decline if geopolitics continues to strongly support sellers. As mentioned earlier, this would require not just a difficult situation in the Middle East, but a further escalation. Oil prices would need to continue rising, more countries would need to become involved in the conflict, and developed economies would need to experience prolonged pressure. The conflict itself would also need to last for many months. Previously, I noted that I did not see strong conditions for such a scenario, but positive developments from the Middle East remain limited. The situation could escalate again at any time.
At present, there are no new patterns for opening positions. In the near term, imbalance 11 may be tested, and if price reacts to this pattern, the downward movement could resume with targets below 1.1400. However, this would require support from geopolitical factors. If the market shifts focus back to the economic backdrop, last week the European Central Bank and the Bank of England created conditions supportive of euro and pound growth by signaling readiness to tighten monetary policy. For now, however, traders are more focused on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran.
The chart structure still indicates bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains in place, but buyers are currently in a difficult position due to rapidly changing news flow. Opening new long positions requires new bullish patterns or at least a liquidity grab from the last two bearish swings. A liquidity grab has occurred, but it does not qualify as a tradable pattern.
The news flow on Wednesday was very limited. Reports emerged about a peace plan from Donald Trump, which was rejected by Iranian authorities as meaningless. That was essentially the only development. If de-escalation has begun, it is progressing slowly.
There are still many reasons for buyers to remain active, and the start of the Middle East conflict has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which contributed to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. In the short term, the US currency may strengthen due to risk aversion, but this factor is unlikely to provide sustained support. There are no other strong drivers supporting the dollar.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but it is uncertain how long this will last. At the same time, the bullish trend has been disrupted, and this should be acknowledged. There is still a chance for a liquidity grab and a resumption of the trend, but geopolitics may again exert downward pressure on EUR/USD.
News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
Germany – Consumer Confidence Index (07:00 UTC) US – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)
On March 26, the economic calendar includes only two entries, neither of which is particularly significant. The impact of news on market sentiment on Thursday may be limited.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news background shifted sharply three weeks ago, but the trend cannot yet be considered fully reversed or completed. Therefore, traders need new patterns and signals to form short-term forecasts.
In the near term, sellers may receive a signal from imbalance 11, while the invalidation of imbalance 12 can also be seen as a signal. Buyers, meanwhile, must wait for the formation of new bullish patterns and corresponding buy signals.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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