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On Wednesday, gold has partially given up its modest intraday gains and is trading slightly below $5,200 at the start of the European session, still close to the weekly high reached on Tuesday. The metal continues to rely on a combination of supporting factors.
The U.S. dollar is once again facing selling pressure amid expectations that current oil prices are no longer high enough to seriously limit the Fed's scope to cut interest rates. This enhances the appeal of the precious metal.
This helps alleviate concerns about inflationary surges associated with military actions and supports expectations of further Fed easing, which should weaken the dollar and benefit gold.
At the same time, there are no signs of a real cessation of hostilities; attacks on Iran have intensified, and the structure of the conflict remains complex, maintaining a high level of geopolitical uncertainty. Against this backdrop, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has intensified operations against the U.S. and Israel, including in cyberspace, claiming to initiate attacks on the technological infrastructure of the enemy in the region. This fuels demand for safe-haven assets, including gold.
However, market participants are not rushing to build directional positions and are instead waiting for the release of U.S. consumer inflation data today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will serve as an important benchmark for expectations of the Fed's future rate-cutting actions, particularly amid the risks that potential oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz may again heat inflation. On Friday, data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator will also play an important role in the short-term dynamics of the dollar and, consequently, in the price of gold.
The combination of fundamental factors looks favorable for gold bulls: probable pullbacks may be viewed by market participants as buying opportunities and are likely to remain shallow in depth of correction.
From a technical perspective, the oscillators on the daily chart are positive, supporting bulls. The $5,200 round level remains a barrier. For now, the path of least resistance for gold is upward.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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