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Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran also stated that the central bank should not focus solely on current indicators. He believes that actions should be based on the conditions expected in 12-18 months, as this is how long it takes for changes in monetary policy to fully manifest in the economy. If rates are lowered too slowly now, tightening will be necessary in a year or a year and a half.
Miran also reported that current data already indicates a slowdown in inflation, which should prompt the FOMC committee to adopt a more "dovish" stance at the December meeting. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a third consecutive round of easing in December has decreased to 44%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Following a series of speeches by Fed governors, the market's sentiment shifted sharply to a less "dovish" outlook, but (notably) demand for U.S. currency began to decrease afterward. The market continues to ignore the news backdrop, but I believe it is focusing on more global events and, importantly, trends.
The trend at the Fed currently points only in one direction—easing. Whether fast or slow, with or without breaks, interest rates will be lowered. Thus, I would say the recent decline in the U.S. dollar is part of a bullish trend that has been developing for a year. Against the backdrop of global events, trends, and changes in U.S. policy, the rise of the dollar seems odd. Therefore, as before, I only anticipate increases for EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments, especially since we have already seen a correction.
It is also worth noting that most other Fed governors do not support a new round of easing. Economic data is still lacking, although the "shutdown" has ended. It may take several weeks for the Bureau of Statistics to gather all necessary data and compile the missing reports. At least for the next week, no "gap filling" is scheduled. Furthermore, is it reasonable to expect inflation to decelerate if it has been rising for the last five months and Trump continues to impose new tariffs?
Jerome Powell's latest statement indicates that the Fed will reduce the pace and "hit the brake pedal," as "driving in complete fog" will not lead to good outcomes. It implies that we should expect all the missing reports regardless. They may only appear by the end of the month, and new reports will be released at the beginning of the following month. Therefore, as soon as economic data starts to come out, the market may react strongly.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to develop a bullish segment of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors that may lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar in the future. The targets for the current segment of the trend could reach the 25 figure. Currently, we are in the construction of corrective wave 4, which is taking a very complex and extended form. Its last internal structure— a-b-c-d-e is presumed to be complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the instrument to rise with targets around annual highs or near them.
The wave picture for GBP/USD has changed. We continue to deal with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in 4 is presumed to be complete. If this is indeed the case, I anticipate that the main wave structure will resume its build-up, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. The key is that the news background needs to be at least a little better than it was this week.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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